One EU country agreed to return to purchases of Russian gas
A resumption of Russian gas purchasing would shift natural-gas flows back into the market.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →supply upNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
A renewed EU purchase would directly support Gazprom’s pipeline-gas sales, increasing the amount of pipeline-grade natural gas flowing back into the market.
78% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
A resumption of Russian gas buying should increase market gas availability and more noticeably ease Equinor's larger Haber-Bosch gas input exposure.
72% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upRussian gas re-entering EU purchases would modestly ease natural-gas tightness in the market, improving Equinor's roasting-fuel gas input availability.
Hop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →supply upAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so a renewed gas inflow directly eases the main input constraint and lifts fertilizer availability.
97% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Stands to benefitWith natural-gas supply easing, Yara's gas-dependent production costs and input risk improve, and the long replacement lead time plus low substitutability make the effect material.
90% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices easeHop 3
Yara International ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)YAR
Russian gas returning to market should raise availability of Yara's key natural-gas feedstock, and the edge's low substitutability plus 24-month replacement lead time make the relief material.
93% confidenceCF Industries Holdings →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Russian gas returning to market directly eases CF Industries' low-substitutability natural-gas feedstock/fuel input, making it more available to procure.
86% confidenceRussia →supply upHop 4
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →supply upAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
More Russian gas in the market should ease nitrogen-fertilizer feedstock constraints, so the broader ammonia/nitrogen-fertilizer category should become more available.
74% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Stands to benefitRussia accounts for 53.8% of this UAN supply mix, so any relief that raises UAN output should most directly benefit the Russian supply source.
59% confidence