Luncurkan 10 Buku Karya Nyata, Bahlil Ceritakan Awal Mula Larangan Ekspor Nikel

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Harita Nickel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Nickel sulfate (battery grade) →Shortage risk

   Lithium-ion batteries

   Nickel sulfate (battery grade) is a major input to lithium-ion batteries, and the 0.75 dependency strength implies a meaningful tightening of battery supply if nickel sulfate flows are restricted.

   88% confidence

   Tsingshan Holding Group →Delays

   Nickel exports from Indonesia

   The cited report says Tsingshan temporarily halted part of its nickel exports from Indonesia, so the export flow itself is delayed/held.

   “Pada 30 Juli 26, IDN Financials memberitakan Tsingshan menghentikan sementara sebagian ekspor produk nikel dari Indonesia.”

   87% confidenceCited →

   Harita Nickel →Shortage risk

2. Hop 2

   Nickel Sulfate (Battery Grade) →Shortage risk

   Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel)GMKN.ME

   Nornickel’s 18% share on this nickel sulfate edge and 36-month replacement time imply meaningful input tightness after the export ban.

   78% confidence

   Nickel Sulfate (Battery Grade) →Shortage risk

   Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd.

   A 12% supply share with low substitutability suggests Huayou would face a material nickel sulfate shortage.

   74% confidence

   Lithium-ion batteries →Prices ease

   Lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide

3. Hop 3

   Battery separator film →Shortage risk

   Lithium-ion batteries

   Battery separator film is a critical, high-dependency input to lithium-ion batteries, so a shock at this node materially constrains battery output.

   93% confidence

   Umicore NV/SA →Shortage risk

   Nickel Sulfate (Battery Grade)

   The nickel export ban tightens upstream nickel availability, which can reduce battery-grade nickel sulfate supply to Umicore; the edge shows a direct input relationship with long replacement lead time and only moderate substitutability.

   80% confidence

   CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. →Shortage risk

   Nickel Hydroxide (NiMH cathode)

4. Hop 4

   Nickel Hydroxide (NiMH cathode) →Prices rise

   Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd.5713

   A 35% market share and 18-month replacement horizon make Sumitomo highly exposed to nickel hydroxide input cost pressure after an upstream nickel export ban.

   71% confidence

   Nickel Hydroxide (NiMH cathode) →Prices rise

   Umicore N.V. (Battery Materials)

   Umicore's 18% share means it is materially exposed to tighter nickel hydroxide availability and resulting input price pressure.

   66% confidence

   Nickel Hydroxide (NiMH cathode) →Prices rise

   Tanaka Chemical Corporation