Indonesia Targets End to Oil, LPG Imports in Three Years
A plan to eliminate oil and LPG imports would shift future supply toward domestic production and away from foreign suppliers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage riskIndonesia plans to eliminate LPG imports, and the United States is the largest listed source at 43%, so its Indonesia-bound sales would be sharply displaced.
84% confidenceLPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage riskQatar accounts for 11% of the listed LPG import supply, so a phaseout of imports would materially reduce its sales into Indonesia.
79% confidenceLPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage riskAustralia supplies 9% of Indonesia's LPG imports, so ending imports would cut this foreign supply channel meaningfully.
Hop 2
Gasoline and diesel →supply upReplacing oil imports with domestic production should increase the domestic crude feedstock available to make gasoline and diesel, and this is their sole critical input on the graph.
64% confidenceQatar →Prices easeLPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane)
Indonesia's import elimination displaces Qatari LPG volumes; with Qatar accounting for an 11% supply share, the LPG market faces downward price pressure as a foreign supplier loses demand.
59% confidenceSaudi Arabia →Prices easeHop 3
Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Prices easeBecause the U.S. supplies 49% of this NGL stream, Indonesia's shift away from imported LPG would soften demand for the foreign stream and pressure prices received by the largest supplier base.
54% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
Companies you may own
No named companies on this path.
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