Европа может потерять еще 20% нефтеперерабатывающих мощностей до 2035 года
The headline signals a potential large future reduction in European refining capacity, which would tighten fuel supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskA 20% reduction in refining capacity directly cuts the conversion of crude feedstock into gasoline and diesel, making these fuels scarcer.
94% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskLower refinery throughput reduces output of heating oil made from crude feedstock, tightening supply.
92% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeLower European refinery runs reduce crude purchases, leaving feedstock more available and pressuring its price.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Prices easeA large cut in refining capacity lowers home heating oil output, reducing crude throughput demand and pressuring crude prices downward.
83% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices easeLess hydrotreating activity means less refinery-grade hydrogen is consumed.
80% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices easeNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen)
If refineries run less, SMR units make less hydrogen and consume less natural gas.
Hop 3
China Northern Rare Earth Group →Prices easeLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive)
If European refineries lose capacity, FCC additive usage falls, which weakens demand for China Northern Rare Earth Group's lanthanum oxide and puts downward pressure on its price.
66% confidenceBASF Catalysts (Refining Division) →Prices easeFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts
If European refineries run less, they consume fewer FCC catalysts, so demand for BASF’s catalyst output weakens and market prices are pushed down.
63% confidenceChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co. →Prices easeHop 4
Refined Cobalt Metal →Prices riseRefined cobalt metal is a meaningful input here, so tighter supply should lift downstream manufacturing costs even if the good is not fully short.
76% confidenceRefined Cobalt Metal →Prices riseThe dependency is weaker than for computers/laptops, but a refined-cobalt squeeze still plausibly raises component and assembly costs in this chain.
66% confidenceRefined Cobalt Metal →Stands to benefitAs the dominant 74% supplier, DRC is the most likely beneficiary if refined cobalt metal remains tighter and prices firm.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Computers and laptops · GPUs and AI accelerators
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.