After Imperial Oil turned off its last pump, Norman Wells looks for what comes next

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Irving Oil, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   A halt in Canadian crude imports constrains a major feedstock stream for jet fuel, and the graph marks this as a strong supply-input dependency.

   79% confidence

   Irving Oil →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   The Norman Wells production halt removes crude supply from the market, and Irving Oil’s crude feedstock input is only moderately substitutable with a 6-month replacement lead time, so feed availability tightens.

   78% confidence

   Syncrude Canada →supply up

   Petroleum Coke (Fuel Grade)

   If Syncrude's output is curtailed, it burns less fuel-grade petroleum coke, so that input becomes slightly more available; the effect is limited by the 2% share and some substitutability.

2. Hop 2

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is also critically dependent on crude oil feedstock, so reduced feedstock supply transmits as a direct shortage.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is a critical, fully dependent input, so a production halt directly constrains gasoline and diesel supply.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Irving Oil

   Irving Oil has low substitutability and a six-month replacement lead time, so a crude feedstock halt materially strains its supply.

3. Hop 3

   STADIS 450 antistatic additive (Innospec) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Jet fuel is marked as critically dependent on STADIS 450, so a supply interruption in the additive constrains jet fuel availability.

   91% confidence

   Home heating oil →Shortage risk

   End-Use Combustion & Emissions

   A supply shock in home heating oil directly reduces the fuel available for the final combustion step, constraining end-use consumption.

   90% confidence

   Enbridge Inc. →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Enbridge depends on crude oil feedstock, and this edge carries a 24% supply share with only moderate substitutability and a 3-month replacement lead time, so a production halt upstream should tighten input availability.