A slow-moving aircraft targets a fuel depot in the western area
An attack on a fuel depot could disrupt regional fuel storage and distribution.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →DelaysA hit to Colonial Pipeline transport capacity directly slows the company's fuel movement, and the sole-qualified-supplier flag with a 36-month replacement lead time makes the disruption severe.
97% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskJet fuel is marked critical with 0.9 dependency strength, so reduced pipeline capacity tightens downstream availability.
95% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskHome-use propane is marked as a critical downstream good, so damage to salt-cavern storage would directly reduce its availability.
82% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Prices riseThe graph assigns a 92% country share, so a Colonial throughput shock is likely to tighten U.S. fuel markets and raise prices.
80% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskBecause the United States accounts for 85% of this node’s country share, the storage disruption would most strongly constrain U.S. supply.
79% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskEnterprise Products Partners L.P.
A disruption to salt-cavern storage would tighten a key input for Enterprise, and its 35% share plus very low substitutability make the impact material.
76% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskEnergy Transfer’s 20% share and very low substitutability mean the storage disruption should constrain this input supply, though less than the largest operator.
73% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskONEOK’s 18% share implies a meaningful but somewhat smaller shortage effect from the same storage disruption.
72% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskTarga still depends on this infrastructure, but its 12% share makes the shortage effect smaller than the larger operators.
69% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskKinder Morgan’s 5% share means the effect is smaller, but the low substitutability still leaves some shortage risk.
64% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Stands to benefitWith 8% market share, 0.35 substitutability, and a 1-month lead time, it can absorb some displaced transport demand when Colonial is constrained.
63% confidenceGlobal Partners LP →DelaysBiodiesel (FAME — Fatty Acid Methyl Ester)
A fuel depot strike can disrupt regional storage and distribution, which would likely slow biodiesel deliveries to Global Partners LP; the edge’s 0.7 substitutability and 1-month replacement lead time keep the effect moderate.
62% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Stands to benefitIts 5% market share and 1-month lead time make it a plausible short-run beneficiary from rerouted volumes away from Colonial.
60% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →DelaysPipeline and terminal storage
The depot attack directly targets fuel storage capacity, so the terminal storage step for jet fuel is immediately delayed and constrained.
95% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysTerminal-to-airport distribution
Once terminal storage is disrupted, the flow of jet fuel from terminals to airports slows, stretching delivery lead times.
84% confidencePropane (home use) →DelaysLast-Mile Residential Delivery
The final delivery step to households is immediately slowed when depot loading and dispatch are disrupted.
83% confidenceHop 3
Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskMixed NGL stream is a critical, near-fully dependent input for home-use propane, so a storage/distribution disruption can quickly reduce propane availability.
89% confidenceHighPeak Energy, Inc. →Shortage riskDelek is a disclosed customer accounting for approximately 82% of HighPeak's revenues, so a supply disruption at HighPeak is likely to curtail deliveries to Delek.
89% confidenceLPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Propane (home use)
Companies you may own
Colonial Pipeline CompanyEnterprise Products Partners L.P.ETONEOK, Inc.TRGPKMIBuckeye Partners, L.P.HPKChevron Renewable Energy Group (formerly REG)GLPSprague EnergyArcher-Daniels-Midland (ADM) BiodieselSDPRSOCDKPUMPPAAVLO
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