Saudi Arabia threatens to cut crude oil supply to Europe
Saudi Arabia may reduce crude oil flows to Europe, potentially tightening refinery feedstock supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Saudi Aramco →Shortage riskEuropean oil refiners
Saudi Aramco explicitly told European term customers they will receive no crude in October, creating a direct feedstock shortage for European refiners.
“Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will receive no crude in October under long-term supply agreements after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked”
98% confidenceCited →Saudi Aramco →Shortage riskSaudi Aramco's reported zero October allocations to European term buyers indicate a real cut in crude supply; with only a 6% share and a 3-month replacement lead time, crude feedstock availability tightens moderately.
91% confidenceSaudi Aramco →supply upHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil is a critical input for gasoline and diesel, so a Saudi supply cut tightens available feedstock and constrains fuel output.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also refinery-dependent, so reduced crude availability tightens its supply.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseWith low substitutability and a six-month replacement lag, tighter crude availability is likely to raise Irving Oil's feedstock costs.
Hop 3
Irving Oil →Shortage riskIrving Oil depends directly on crude oil feedstock, and a Saudi supply cut would tighten availability of that input despite some substitutability and a 6-month replacement lead time.
87% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeLower gasoline and diesel output reduces refinery hydrogen consumption, so refinery-grade hydrogen demand and price likely soften.
84% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeHop 4
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskRefinery-grade hydrogen is a critical input to hydroprocessing, so tighter hydrogen supply directly constrains home heating oil output.
86% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskA shortage of refinery-grade hydrogen propagates into lower gasoline and diesel production because hydrogen is a critical refining input.
82% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Prices easeLower European refinery throughput would cut FCC catalyst consumption, putting downward price pressure on the largest catalyst supplier here.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
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