Global oil security looks shakier as conflicts hit 45 million bpd of supply
Conflict is disrupting a very large volume of oil supply, implying broad production and export risk.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskJet fuel is the direct output of this feedstock and the edge is marked critical with very high dependency strength, so a crude-feedstock squeeze translates into tighter jet fuel availability.
95% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskElemental sulfur is a direct feedstock for sulfuric acid, so a supply shock to sulfur should tighten sulfuric acid availability.
88% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil has the largest listed share on this input and only moderate substitutability, so a broad oil-supply shock is likely to raise its feedstock costs.
Hop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, one-to-one input for gasoline and diesel, so a broad crude supply shock directly constrains their availability.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also critically dependent on crude oil feedstock, so disruption at the feedstock level makes heating oil scarcer.
97% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Conflict-driven crude supply disruption directly tightens the jet-fuel feedstock that Gulf Coast refineries rely on.
Hop 3
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskThis edge marks Colonial Pipeline Company as the sole qualified supplier with a 36-month replacement lead time, so a transport-capacity shock should severely constrain the company.
96% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskThe graph assigns the United States a 92% supply share here, so a disruption in Colonial Pipeline transport capacity would heavily constrain U.S. supply.
90% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.