USD 4.5 Billion Refinery Upgrade Planned to Cut Fuel Imports
A planned refinery upgrade would add refining capacity and reduce dependence on imported fuels, easing supply constraints if completed.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upThe planned refinery upgrade is explicitly meant to raise refining capacity and reduce imports, which should increase the availability of gasoline and diesel produced from crude feedstock.
84% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHigher refinery capacity should also lift output of home heating oil, easing supply constraints for another critical crude-derived fuel.
80% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upThis 0.75-weight input link means higher refinery throughput should translate into more jet fuel output and looser supply constraints.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Prices riseMore home heating oil output from the refinery upgrade requires more crude feedstock, so demand and price for this critical input rise.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseHigher refinery throughput increases hydrogen demand for hydrotreating, putting upward pressure on this critical input.
83% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseAdding refinery capacity raises crude runs, so crude oil feedstock demand and input prices would move up.
Hop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upIf the refinery upgrade adds capacity, this critical feedstock becomes more available and should lift jet fuel output.
82% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Stands to benefitBecause the U.S. accounts for 90% of this input's supply, it captures most of any added hydrogen demand from the refinery upgrade.
75% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Stands to benefitHop 4
Topsoe A/S →Stands to benefitHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
A refinery capacity upgrade should raise demand for hydrotreating catalyst supply, and Topsoe's 40% share with low substitutability and an 8-month replacement time makes this line a meaningful beneficiary.
68% confidenceValero Energy →Stands to benefitGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico is a disclosed fuel customer of Valero, so a refinery capacity increase that eases fuel import constraints should improve fuel availability and/or lower prices for that customer.
64% confidenceTopsoe A/S →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Jet fuel · Asphalt and paving materials
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