Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage risk
Gasoline and diesel
Refinery-grade hydrogen is a critical input for gasoline and diesel production, so a hydrogen squeeze directly reduces fuel output.
94% confidence
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage risk
Jet fuel
Colonial transport capacity is a critical input to jet fuel, so a squeeze here directly reduces jet fuel availability.
93% confidence
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage risk
Colonial Pipeline Company
The company depends on this low-substitutability, sole-qualified capacity with a 45% share and a 36-month replacement lead time, so the squeeze constrains the operator itself.
88% confidence
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage risk
United States
The graph assigns 90% of this input supply to the U.S., so tighter hydrogen availability disproportionately constrains U.S. refining and fuel supply.
85% confidence
Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) →Stands to benefit
Neste CorporationNESTE.HE
Neste's 60% market share on this HEFA SAF node and low substitutability mean a tighter market should improve its pricing power.
83% confidence
Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) →Prices rise
Jet fuel
HEFA SAF is a 0.6-dependency supply input to jet fuel, so tighter availability mainly lifts jet-fuel prices.
80% confidence
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Stands to benefit
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.APD
As the 40% incumbent supplier in a hard-to-replace hydrogen market, Air Products can gain pricing power when supply tightens.
76% confidence
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Stands to benefit
Linde plcLIN
Linde's 35% share and long replacement lead time make it a likely beneficiary of tighter hydrogen markets and higher prices.
75% confidence
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Stands to benefit
Air Liquide S.A.
Air Liquide's 20% share means it can also benefit from scarce hydrogen supply, though with less direct leverage than the larger incumbents.
71% confidence
Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Shortage risk
Home heating oil
Hydrotreating catalysts are a critical input to producing home heating oil, so any constraint at this node tightens fuel availability downstream.
62% confidence
Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Shortage risk
Gasoline and diesel
Gasoline and diesel depend strongly on hydrotreating catalysts, so a squeeze at this input propagates as tighter refined-fuel supply.
61% confidence
