U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to lowest level since 1982
A low Strategic Petroleum Reserve level reduces emergency crude supply available to the market.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Underground natural gas storage (depleted fields & salt caverns), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical 0.95-dependency input to jet fuel, so less emergency crude directly tightens jet-fuel supply.
96% confidenceUnderground Salt Cavern Storage Infrastructure →Shortage riskThe U.S. is the dominant user of this storage infrastructure, so a depleted SPR directly leaves the United States with less emergency crude buffer.
94% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
With a 9% supply share and only moderate substitutability, a tighter Gulf Coast feedstock raises ExxonMobil's input costs.
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A lower SPR directly tightens the crude feedstock available to Gulf Coast refineries that supply jet fuel.
95% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskCrude oil sourcing
With less emergency crude available in the market, the crude sourcing step feeding jet fuel production becomes harder to execute.
90% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A lower SPR tightens crude availability in the market, and this is Marathon’s direct crude feedstock input with only 7% market share, moderate substitutability, and a 3-month replacement lead time.
Hop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseGasoline and diesel have a critical one-for-one dependence on crude oil feedstock, so tighter emergency crude supply should raise their prices.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseHome heating oil is a critical crude-derived output, so reduced crude availability should push its price higher.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseIrving Oil has only moderate substitutability for this input and a 6-month replacement lag, so tighter crude supply should raise its feedstock costs.
Hop 4
Gasoline and diesel →Shortage riskGasoline and diesel production is critically dependent on crude oil feedstock, so a reduction in emergency crude supply directly makes that input scarcer.
99% confidenceHome heating oil →Shortage riskHome heating oil depends directly and critically on crude oil feedstock, so a lower SPR tightens crude availability and constrains this input.
92% confidenceIrving Oil →Prices riseThe SPR drawdown tightens crude availability and likely raises Irving Oil's crude feedstock costs, especially with only moderate substitutability and a six-month replacement lead time.
Hop 5
Shell plc →Stands to benefitShell Trading (US) Company accounts for 35% of Talos's oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, and a tighter crude market from a depleted SPR should lift realized prices for upstream sellers.
61% confidenceShell plc →Stands to benefitShell Trading US Company represented 21.4% of Crescent's 2025 revenues, so higher crude prices from reduced emergency supply should support its upstream sales realizations.
59% confidenceShell plc →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.