Två ryska raffinaderier träffade
Two Russian refineries were hit, potentially disrupting refined fuel output and supply flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Lubricants and motor oil, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Base oils (Group II/III) →Shortage riskThe graph identifies Base oils Group II/III as a critical input to lubricants and motor oil with 0.9 dependency strength, so a constrained base-oil node can materially constrain finished lubricant availability.
80% confidenceLubricants and motor oil →Prices riseLubricants and motor oil have a critical, high-strength dependency on Group II/III base oils (dependency_strength 0.9), so a refinery-driven lubricant constraint would most directly transmit into tighter and higher-cost base-oil availability.
60% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitThe graph assigns the United States a 22% supply share for this input, so its base-oil sector is positioned to benefit from tighter availability elsewhere.
52% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitThe graph assigns South Korea an 18% supply share for this input, making it a plausible substitute-supply beneficiary when Russian base-oil availability is constrained.
52% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitThe edge gives SK Enmove a 12% base-oil supply market share, so constrained Russian-related base-oil flows can support its pricing or substitution demand.
50% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitExxonMobilXOM
The edge gives ExxonMobil a 13% base-oil supply market share, so tighter Russian-linked availability can modestly benefit remaining suppliers through demand capture or pricing power.
50% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitThe edge gives Chevron an 11% base-oil supply market share, making it a plausible beneficiary of tighter base-oil availability, tempered by moderate substitutability.
50% confidenceBase oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefitThe graph assigns Singapore a 10% supply share for this input, giving it some beneficiary exposure to tighter base-oil supply, though the smaller share and lower source confidence limit the magnitude.
47% confidenceHop 2
SK Enmove →supply upSK Enmove is a non-sole supplier of Group II/III base oils with a stated 12% market share, so any substitution toward it can provide limited relief to the disrupted base-oil market.
52% confidenceSK Enmove →supply upLubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants
SK Enmove’s 12% share and moderate substitutability support a modest supply-relief effect into broader lubricant base-oil supply, but the edge is broader than the specific Group II/III shock.
50% confidenceSouth Korea →Delays