Freeport beats profit forecasts despite Grasberg slump
A slump at the Grasberg mine indicates reduced copper production from a major source.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Freeport-McMoRan, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Freeport-McMoRan →Shortage riskA Grasberg production slump cuts Freeport's copper output, and this edge carries a 6% market share with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so copper ore concentrate supply should tighten.
91% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Shortage riskCopper cathode is marked as a critical, high-dependency input here, so a production slump can propagate into reduced availability of plumbing pipes and fittings.
90% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Prices riseWith the largest listed share of this input and an 18-month replacement lead time, Mueller faces strong copper cathode cost pressure if supply tightens.
88% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Prices riseHailiang’s meaningful share and moderate substitutability imply higher input costs as copper cathode supply tightens.
80% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Prices riseCerro’s substantial share and 12-month replacement lag make its copper feedstock costs rise when cathode supply is constrained.
79% confidenceFreeport-McMoRan →Shortage riskMitsubishi Materials Corporation (MMC)
Freeport disclosed MMC as a major customer at 17% of 2024 consolidated revenue, so lower Grasberg output can constrain shipments to MMC.
74% confidenceRio Tinto →Prices riseGrasberg’s production slump tightens global copper supply and lifts copper-linked prices, so Rio Tinto’s copper-ore-concentrate input becomes more expensive, though the modeled dependency is only 3% and not sole-sourced.
69% confidenceGlencore (Copper) →Stands to benefitCopper scrap (secondary copper)
A slump in major mined copper supply tightens the copper market and makes secondary copper more attractive as a substitute input, so the scrap channel is a likely beneficiary.
57% confidenceHop 2
Copper ore concentrate →Shortage riskCopper and electrical wiring is a critical downstream user of copper concentrate, so a major supply slump tightens input availability and raises costs.
95% confidenceMueller Industries, Inc. →Shortage riskCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade)
Mueller sources 57% of this input here, and the 18-month replacement time means a Grasberg-driven copper production slump materially tightens supply.
92% confidencePlumbing pipes and fittings →DelaysCopper Tube Drawing & Annealing
A copper cathode slump directly slows or idles the copper tube drawing and annealing stage inside plumbing pipes and fittings.
Hop 3
Brass Rod & Castings (Plumbing Fittings) →Shortage riskBrass rod and castings are a critical input to plumbing pipes and fittings, so a copper-driven squeeze should make that downstream good scarcer.
89% confidenceCanada →Shortage riskCanada is the dominant source of this input (81.9% country share), so a copper-related supply slump reaching Canada would likely tighten copper wire and rod availability.
85% confidenceACR Copper Tubing (refrigerant-grade) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Plumbing pipes and fittings · Copper and electrical wiring · HVAC systems and equipment
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.