U.S. Gulf energy hub braces for Category 2 hurricane
A hurricane threat could disrupt Gulf Coast energy production, refining, and port logistics.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Marathon Petroleum Corporation, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock sits directly upstream of jet fuel, and the edge marks jet fuel as a critical 0.95-dependent input, so a hurricane-driven shortfall should transmit almost fully.
97% confidenceValero Energy →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
The hurricane can shut in Gulf production and disrupt refinery/port transfers, directly tightening Valero's jet-fraction feedstock supply.
88% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskA hurricane-driven refinery/terminal disruption at Marathon would cut supply of oxidized asphalt/bitumen, and this edge is sizeable at 18% market share with only moderate substitutability and a six-month replacement lead time.
86% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil accounts for a 9% supply share in this input graph, so a Gulf hurricane that disrupts the feedstock should materially curb its output availability.
83% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC is a 12% customer of Chord, so a storm-induced slowdown at Marathon would make those sales scarcer.
82% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskValero's 7.5% supply share means a hurricane-related disruption to this feedstock would cut its available output in a material way.
81% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon holds a 7% supply share here, so a Gulf Coast storm should noticeably constrain its feedstock-linked output.
80% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
If Gulf Coast refining and logistics are disrupted, Marathon's supply of this jet-fraction stream tightens; the edge carries a 7% share with a three-month replacement lead time.
79% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskMotiva's 3.75% share and moderate substitutability indicate a real but smaller exposure if the hurricane disrupts this feedstock.
77% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskPhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 has a 3% supply share in this input, so the storm shock should still reduce its available output, though less than the larger players.
75% confidenceValero Energy →Shortage riskIf Gulf Coast refineries curtail operations, fuel-grade petroleum coke output and deliveries fall, making this input scarcer for Valero.
72% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskA disruption to this crude-import stream would tighten feedstock for jet fuel, and the 0.75 dependency indicates a fairly strong transmission.
61% confidenceValero Energy →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys airport fuel from local suppliers such as Valero, so Gulf Coast supply disruption can raise its jet-fuel costs.
61% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →DelaysRefining and hydrotreatment
Hurricane-related refinery outages are a direct threat to this critical jet fuel conversion step, so output can be delayed sharply.
94% confidenceOxidized Asphalt / Bitumen →Shortage riskOxidized asphalt/bitumen is a critical roofing input, so a Gulf Coast supply disruption is likely to tighten roofing materials availability quickly.
93% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysPipeline and terminal storage
Storm impacts on terminals and storage are a classic bottleneck for moving jet fuel through the Gulf logistics system.
90% confidenceHop 3
Roofing materials →DelaysAsphalt Saturation
Roofing materials depend heavily on bitumen, so the Gulf refining disruption can slow the asphalt saturation step.
82% confidenceRoofing materials →DelaysCoating Asphalt Application
This asphalt-based coating step is tightly tied to the same bitumen input already stressed by the hurricane threat.
80% confidenceCalumet Inc. →Shortage riskA Gulf Coast hurricane threat can curtail Calumet's ability to move and refine bitumen, making this commodity scarcer; the edge is strong given the 30% market share, low substitutability, and six-month replacement lead time.
79% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Roofing materials
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.