RA is killing the solar industry
Rising rates are constraining solar project development and installations, reducing near-term supply of solar equipment and deployment activity.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Solar-Grade Polysilicon, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Solar-Grade Polysilicon →Prices easeTongwei Co., Ltd.600438.SS
Slower solar project development cuts downstream demand for solar-grade polysilicon, pressuring Tongwei’s sales and pricing; this edge carries the largest listed share at 26%.
84% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon →Prices easeGCL Technology Holdings3800.HK
Reduced solar installations weaken polysilicon demand and likely compress GCL’s pricing power, with this edge showing an 18% market share and low substitutability.
82% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon →Prices easeHop 2
Solar Cover Glass (Low-Iron Float Glass for PV Modules) →Prices easeChina accounts for 90% of supply on this edge, so the solar slowdown concentrates the demand shock on Chinese producers of this input.
86% confidenceSolar Cover Glass (Low-Iron Float Glass for PV Modules) →Prices easeSlower solar project development cuts demand for PV module cover glass, and Xinyi is the largest supplier here at 34% share.
84% confidenceSolar Cover Glass (Low-Iron Float Glass for PV Modules) →Prices easeHop 3
China →Shortage riskChina supplies 98% of gallium, so a production halt in China can make gallium materially scarcer.
80% confidenceChina →Shortage riskChina supplies 95% of terbium metal, so a China-side production disruption can tighten supply significantly.
78% confidenceNSG Group (Pilkington) →Prices easeSolar Cover Glass (Low-Iron Float Glass for PV Modules)
Rising rates slowing solar project development cut demand for PV-module glass, so NSG's solar cover glass line faces softer sales and likely lower prices rather than a shortage.
Hop 4
Terbium (Tb) Metal →supply upTerbium is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so weaker terbium demand/price should modestly ease magnet supply.
64% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Prices easeChina Southern Rare Earth Group
With roughly 60% of terbium supply, this producer is exposed to lower terbium pricing and revenue if solar-linked demand softens.
61% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Prices easeChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co.
Its 20% share of terbium supply makes it vulnerable to the same price pressure from weaker demand.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Rare earth magnets
Companies you may own
600438.SS3800.HKDQ1799.HKXinyi Solar Holdings LimitedFlat Glass Group Co., Ltd.5214.TSGO.PACSG Holding Co., Ltd.China Southern Rare Earth GroupChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Shenghe Resources Holding Co., Ltd.Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.