Asian coal prices to stay elevated as Indonesian supply curbs tighten market: Report
Indonesian coal supply curbs are tightening the coal market and reducing available thermal coal exports.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from PT Timah, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Stands to benefitGlencoreGLEN.L
As a large metallurgical coal supplier, Glencore should benefit from the tighter market and firmer prices, consistent with reports that coal miners gain from stronger cash flows when supply is constrained.
79% confidenceMetallurgical (coking) coal →Stands to benefitBHP GroupBHP
BHP's meaningful metallurgical coal exposure means it is positioned to benefit from higher seaborne coal prices as Indonesian supply curbs tighten the market.
77% confidenceMetallurgical (coking) coal →Stands to benefitHop 2
Fly Ash & Slag (SCMs) →Prices riseFly ash and slag are a 0.4-dependency input to cement and concrete, so tighter SCM supply pushes blending costs higher.
80% confidenceFly Ash & Slag (SCMs) →Shortage riskEco Material Technologies (now CRH)
Eco Material carries a 10% share of the fly ash/slag supply pool, so a coal-driven tightening of the SCM market reduces the volume it can source and sell.
75% confidenceAustralia →Prices riseHop 3
Eco Material Technologies (now CRH) →Shortage riskIndonesian coal export curbs can tighten thermal-coal-derived fly ash availability, and Eco Material’s dependence on Fly Ash & Slag SCMs is nontrivial but partially substitutable (10% share, 6-month replacement lag), so the hit is a moderate input shortage.
64% confidenceNTPC Limited →Shortage riskCoal supply curbs can reduce NTPC's thermal generation and therefore its fly ash/slag byproduct supply; with only an 8% market share and moderate substitutability, the effect is a modest shortage rather than a full disruption.
62% confidenceCement and concrete →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Steel and iron products · Cement and concrete
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