Oil Prices Stay High as War Keeps Supply Tight Into 2027
Persistent war-related tightness implies continued constrained supply of crude oil and related fuels.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is a direct downstream fuel from crude oil feedstock, so sustained crude supply tightness reduces its availability.
99% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, direct input to gasoline and diesel, so persistent crude tightness constrains fuel availability.
99% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis is a direct, critical input to jet fuel, so persistent crude/feedstock tightness should keep jet fuel supply constrained.
Hop 2
Valero Energy →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico says it buys airport fuel from suppliers including Valero at prices based on Platts, so persistently high oil prices transmit directly as higher jet-fuel costs.
95% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskCrude oil sourcing
The upstream sourcing step stays directly constrained by the same war-related crude supply tightness driving the jet-fuel shortage.
89% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysColonial Pipeline transport capacity
Jet fuel depends critically on this chokepoint, so persistent crude tightness can keep pipeline capacity stretched and lengthen delivery lead times.
Hop 3
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskThis capacity is a sole-qualified, hard-to-replace input for Colonial Pipeline Company, so tighter capacity should materially constrain its transport operations.
93% confidenceBitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskBitumen is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so sustained crude tightness should make this downstream good scarcer.
92% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskHop 4
Asphalt and paving materials →Prices riseAsphalt and paving materials depend critically on bitumen/asphalt binder (dependency_strength 0.95), so persistently tight crude supply should feed through into higher binder costs.
94% confidencePhillips 66 Company →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Phillips 66's crude feedstock remains directly exposed to war-driven crude tightness, so its acquisition cost should stay elevated; the 3-month replacement window and moderate substitutability blunt but do not remove the pressure.
89% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Home heating oil · Gasoline and diesel · Jet fuel · Asphalt and paving materials · Cleaning and sanitation supplies · Fiber optic cables and networking
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.