Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk
Jet fuel
This feedstock is a near-critical upstream input to jet fuel, so a sanctions-driven squeeze on crude/refined flows transmits directly into tighter jet fuel availability.
92% confidence
Gasoline and diesel →Shortage risk
Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC)
FCC is a key gasoline-yielding unit, so refinery outages directly tighten available cracking capacity and product flow.
78% confidence
Gasoline and diesel →Shortage risk
Atmospheric & Vacuum Distillation (CDU/VDU)
Refinery attacks that curtail gasoline and diesel output also take distillation capacity offline, making this core separation step scarce.
77% confidence
Gasoline and diesel →Shortage risk
Hydrocracking & Hydrotreating
Hydrocracking and hydrotreating are critical for diesel and gasoline production, and refinery damage makes that processing capacity scarcer.
77% confidence
Canada →Shortage risk
Linear Alkylbenzene (LAB)
Canada supplies 87.6% of LAB, a petrochemical feedstock, so a Canadian shock would constrain availability.
76% confidence
Canada →Shortage risk
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder
Canada supplies 82.6% of this asphalt binder, so a Canadian shock would make this oil-derived material scarcer.
75% confidence
Canada →Shortage risk
HDPE Resin (bottle packaging)
Canada supplies 85.3% of this packaging resin, so a Canadian shock would tighten this petrochemical input.
74% confidence
Canada →Shortage risk
United States Antimony Corp.UAMY
UAMY says most of its antimony ore has come from one Canadian supplier, so a Canadian supply shock would directly cut ore availability.
72% confidence
Canada →Shortage risk
Chlorine (VCM / PVC Synthesis)
Canada supplies 79.5% of this PVC-chain input, so a Canadian disruption would tighten the upstream feedstock chain.
68% confidence
PBF Energy →Shortage risk
Shell plcSHEL
If PBF's refinery throughput is constrained by crude-feedstock shortages, Shell as a disclosed customer for about 13% of PBF revenue could face reduced supply from PBF.
68% confidence
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise
ExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil’s 9% exposure and only moderate substitutability mean a tighter Gulf Coast feedstock market mainly raises its input costs.
68% confidence
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise
Valero EnergyVLO
Valero’s 7.5% exposure and three-month replacement lead time make it vulnerable to higher feedstock prices when supply is constrained.
67% confidence
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise
Marathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon’s 7% exposure and moderate substitutability imply a meaningful rise in input costs under a tighter Gulf Coast feedstock market.
66% confidence
United States →Stands to benefit
Permian Resources CorporationPR
Russian oil/refinery supply disruptions can lift global crude prices, which tends to benefit U.S. upstream producers; Permian Resources is a U.S.-concentrated producer with all proved reserves in the Permian Basin.
64% confidence
Canada →Delays
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.AIRO
AIRO says it sources components and raw materials from a limited set of suppliers in Canada and Europe, some sole-source, so Canadian disruption would delay supply.
63% confidence
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise
Motiva Enterprises LLC
Motiva’s smaller 3.75% exposure is still enough that a supply shock lifts its feedstock costs, though with less severity than the larger refiners.
63% confidence
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise
Phillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 has limited but real exposure at 3%, so the shock mainly shows up as somewhat higher input prices rather than outright shortage.
62% confidence
