New U.S. sanctions law threatens India’s huge Russian oil trade
New sanctions could disrupt India’s imports of Russian crude oil.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseBlack Sea wheat is a critical input to bread, grains, and flour, so sanctions that tighten this supply push end-product prices higher.
95% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Shortage riskRussia accounts for 26% of this export stream, so sanctions that constrain Russian trade directly reduce the available flow from that country.
90% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
A sanctions hit to Gazprom would directly tighten this natural-gas supply used as feedstock and fuel, with meaningful share and long replacement time.
88% confidenceTENEX (JSC Techsnabexport) →Shortage riskLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel
A sanctions shock on TENEX would constrain this supply link; LEU is a large share of output and replacement is slow, so availability would tighten materially.
87% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskReduced Gazprom supply would make this industrial gas fuel scarcer, and the 36-month replacement horizon limits quick substitution.
84% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskHelium (Grade 5.0 / Fiber-Drawing Grade)
Sanctions on Russia can constrain Gazprom’s helium output, making this low-substitutability grade scarcer.
83% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseBunge has an 18% exposure on this edge, low substitutability, and a 6-month replacement lag, so tighter Black Sea wheat raises its input costs.
83% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
If Gazprom’s Russian production is constrained, this upstream wellhead-output node becomes less available despite some substitutability.
82% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseArdent Mills has an 18% exposure with only moderate substitutability, so constrained Black Sea wheat likely raises its input prices.
80% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
Sanction pressure on Gazprom would constrain pipeline-grade gas availability, with moderate substitutability and a long rebuild window.
80% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseKernel's 10% exposure and six-month replacement window mean sanctions-driven wheat tightness lifts its procurement costs.
79% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseCargill's 15% exposure and moderate substitutability mean the Black Sea wheat squeeze should lift sourcing costs.
77% confidenceBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices riseCOFCO's 12% exposure and only moderate ease of substitution make it vulnerable to higher wheat procurement prices.
74% confidenceTENEX (JSC Techsnabexport) →Shortage riskCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical)
If sanctions restrict TENEX’s trade flows, this high-share isotope supply would become scarcer, with only moderate substitutability and a meaningful replacement lag.
73% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (glass furnace fuel)
Gazprom’s constrained gas supply would also tighten this smaller glass-furnace fuel segment, though its share is limited and replacement is quicker.
72% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead production
New sanctions on Russia and Iran tighten energy flows and likely raise the cost of BP’s natural-gas-related input; the edge is only moderately substitutable and replacement would take time.
52% confidenceHop 2
Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Shortage riskRussia supplies 44% of LEU in the graph, so sanctions on Russia can directly cut that source share.
97% confidenceNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Shortage riskRussia's large gas supply share means sanctions that tighten Russian energy flows should directly reduce its gas export availability.
95% confidenceCargill, Incorporated →Shortage riskBlack Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)
Sanctions tightening Russia/Ukraine-linked Black Sea wheat exports directly constrain Cargill's 15% Black Sea wheat input.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Bread, grains, and flour · Natural gas (home) · Electricity (residential) · Coffee · Residential Electricity
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.