Oil stable as higher Middle East exports offset supply threats

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical jet-fuel input, so easing crude supply constraints should materially lift jet-fuel availability.

   82% confidence

   Canadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefit

   Saudi Arabia

   Saudi Arabia supplies 4.9% of Canadian crude oil imports, and the cited market move says Saudi export flows increased as higher Middle East exports offset supply threats, so Saudi Arabia is a modest beneficiary of the easing supply backdrop.

   81% confidence

   Saudi Aramco →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Saudi Aramco drove much of the higher Mideast export flow, and those extra barrels ease crude supply concerns, making the crude oil feedstock input more available; the 6% share and moderate substitutability keep the effect modest.

   74% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   ExxonMobilXOM

   With 9% share, ExxonMobil gets a moderate benefit from steadier crude feedstock availability, tempered by some substitutability.

   69% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Valero EnergyVLO

   Higher Middle East exports help keep crude feedstock available for this refiner, with a somewhat larger pass-through at its 7.5% share.

   68% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Marathon Petroleum CorporationMPC

   Easing crude supply threats benefits this large refiner by keeping its feedstock more available, though substitutability limits the pass-through somewhat.

   68% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Phillips 66PSX

   Lower supply risk modestly benefits this refiner, but its smaller 3% share and reasonable substitutability keep the effect below the largest peers.

   66% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Motiva Enterprises LLC

   More stable crude exports ease feedstock constraints for this Gulf Coast supplier, with a moderate effect given its 3.75% share and partial substitutability.

   64% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is a critical input, so higher crude exports should make gasoline and diesel more available.

   94% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Home heating oil

   Crude oil feedstock is a critical input, so higher crude exports should make home heating oil more available.

   94% confidence

   Valero Energy →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Higher Middle East crude exports relieve pressure on Valero's crude feedstock market, making the Gulf Coast jet-fraction crude input more available.

3. Hop 3

   Gasoline and diesel →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Higher Middle East exports raise crude availability, directly easing this critical feedstock for gasoline and diesel.

   97% confidence

   Lubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants →supply up

   Motor oil & lubricants

   Higher Middle East exports ease lubricant base-oil tightness, directly improving downstream motor oil and lubricants availability under a critical 0.85 dependency.

   92% confidence

   Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →supply up

   Asphalt and paving materials