Drone attacks Gazelle in LNR, two people killed
A drone strike on a gas facility could disrupt natural gas production or processing in the area.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskHome-use propane is a critical downstream product of the mixed NGL stream, so a disruption in NGL supply should materially tighten availability.
89% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskEnterprise Products Partners L.P.
Enterprise has the largest listed exposure to this NGL input, and low substitutability plus a long replacement horizon make the supply hit material.
79% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskONEOK has a meaningful direct dependency on the NGL stream, so a production/processing disruption should reduce its available input.
76% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskTarga has a direct but somewhat smaller exposure to the NGL stream, so the shock should still constrain its input supply.
74% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskEnergy Transfer depends on this NGL stream for part of its input base, so constrained supply should lower availability for its operations.
74% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
A disruption at ToAz would tighten ammonium nitrate supply; the listed 8% market share and 6-month replacement lead time make the effect material.
68% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production)
If ToAz output is interrupted, anhydrous ammonia supply becomes tighter; the 3% share still matters, though less than AN.
63% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskUrea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N)
A disruption at ToAz would constrain urea supply; substitution is possible, but the 3-month lead time still supports a noticeable shortage.
61% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
A ToAz production shock would reduce UAN availability, with the 3-month replacement horizon limiting quick substitution.
60% confidenceHop 2
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Shortage riskUrea is a critical, high-dependency input for fertilizers and crop inputs, so a production disruption should tighten downstream availability.
91% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage riskUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz)
A natural-gas disruption can curtail ToAz's ammonia/UAN production, directly constraining the supplier already tied to this UAN stream.
85% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage riskHop 3
Fertilizers and crop inputs →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade)
A gas-facility incident directly reduces availability of feedstock-grade natural gas, which is a critical input for fertilizer and crop-input production.
95% confidenceHighPeak Energy, Inc. →Shortage riskHighPeak's largest disclosed customer accounts for about 82% of revenues, so a production disruption at HighPeak would most likely reduce supply delivered to Delek.
88% confidenceSandRidge Energy, Inc. →Shortage riskTarga Resources Corp. (Targa Pipeline Mid-Continent West OK LLC)
Hop 4
Delek US Holdings, Inc. →Shortage riskDelek accounted for approximately 82% of HighPeak's revenues, so a disruption at Delek would materially reduce HighPeak's sales and revenue.
92% confidenceArkema S.A. →Shortage riskEthyl Mercaptan (Propane Odorant)
Arkema’s ethyl mercaptan dependency is highly concentrated and hard to replace (40% share, sole-qualified supplier, 5% substitutability, 18-month replacement lead time), so the upstream gas-facility shock should make this input materially scarcer.
83% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Propane (home use) · Fertilizers and crop inputs
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.