Turkey calculates doubling gas production in the Black Sea
Planned higher Black Sea gas output signals future new supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from BP plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Natural gas wellhead production →supply upHigher Black Sea output lifts upstream gas availability, and residential natural gas is a critical one-to-one downstream dependent of wellhead production.
96% confidenceBP plc →supply upNatural gas wellhead production
Turkey’s Black Sea ramp-up adds new natural-gas supply, so BP’s natural-gas-wellhead-production input becomes more available; the effect is modest because the edge weight is small (3.5% share) and substitutability is moderate.
60% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Turkey's Black Sea gas expansion adds future natural-gas supply, making Gazprom's gas feedstock and fuel more available.
51% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →supply upThe planned increase in Black Sea gas output should ease overall gas availability, including industrial fuel uses like roasting fuel.
48% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →supply upNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
The reported step-up to 7 bcm annual capacity in Sakarya signals more pipeline-grade gas supply, easing this input for Gazprom.
45% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →supply upAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical feedstock for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production, so more gas supply should increase fertilizer availability.
92% confidenceNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →supply upResidential electricity is highly dependent on natural gas as an input, so a future gas supply increase can raise power availability and ease fuel constraints.
79% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Yara International ASA →supply upAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production)
Cheaper Black Sea gas should lower Yara's ammonia-feedstock costs and support higher anhydrous-ammonia supply; the graph gives this line a 15% share and short 2-month replacement lead time.
75% confidenceYara International ASA →supply upUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
Lower gas costs can also raise Yara's urea output, and this commodity has a direct gas-intensity link plus a measured 6% share in the graph.
72% confidenceHop 4
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →supply upUrea nitrogen fertilizer is a critical input for rice production, so more fertilizer availability should increase rice output.
86% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →supply upPotash and phosphate fertilizers
More available anhydrous ammonia eases the key feedstock constraint for MAP/DAP production, increasing supply of potash and phosphate fertilizers.
81% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Natural gas (home) · Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Electricity (residential) · Rice · Potash and phosphate fertilizers
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.