El Niño 2026, the most intense since the 19th century, could shake global weather.
A potentially severe El Niño could disrupt agricultural output and commodity availability across multiple regions through weather shocks.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Sugar, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Sunflower seeds →Prices riseSunflower seeds are a critical 0.7-weight input to cooking oils, so a weather-driven seed shock should lift oil prices.
88% confidenceSugar →Shortage riskEl Niño is weighing on sugar supply outlooks in major producing regions, and sugarcane is the crop’s critical input, so weather-driven crop shortfalls tighten sugarcane availability.
87% confidenceSunflower seeds →Shortage riskUkraine carries 29% of sunflower-seed supply, so El Niño-related crop losses there can materially tighten output.
Hop 2
Green Coffee Beans — Arabica →Shortage riskArabica beans are a critical input to Coffee, so El Niño-driven tightness would directly make the good scarcer.
97% confidenceSugarcane →Shortage riskSugar is a critical downstream product of sugarcane, so an El Niño-driven cane shortfall tightens sugar availability.
96% confidenceGreen Coffee Beans — Arabica →Shortage riskBrazil's 38% share means weather-driven arabica shortfalls there would materially tighten the global supply base.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Cooking oils · Coffee · Sugar
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.