U.S. adds 43 more firms to blacklist in China Uyghur sanctions
The U.S. blacklist expansion can restrict trade and input flows for the named Chinese companies and their suppliers/buyers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Xinjiang Tianye Group Co., Ltd., we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Daqo New Energy Corp. →Shortage riskA blacklist hit on Daqo can curtail availability of this polysilicon grade; its 12% market share, low substitutability, and 36-month replacement horizon make the disruption material.
83% confidenceDaqo New Energy Corp. →Shortage riskSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity)
Sanctions can also tighten supply of the 9N-purity variant, but higher substitutability and a shorter 12-month replacement horizon make the effect less severe than the broader grade.
77% confidenceXinjiang Tianye Group Co., Ltd. →Shortage riskXinjiang Tianye is a supplier of calcium carbide, and a sanction-related disruption at a supplier with 15% market share and a 12-month replacement horizon can tighten this input's availability.
Hop 2
Cosmetic Silicones & Emollient Esters →Prices riseCosmetic silicones and emollient esters are a direct input to cosmetics and makeup, so a sanction-driven squeeze on this input is likely to raise downstream production costs.
85% confidenceCalcium Carbide (CaC2) →Shortage riskThe graph marks Industrial gases as a critical downstream good of calcium carbide, so a sanction-driven restriction on the CaC2 stream should make that input scarcer for the good.
76% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Stands to benefitHop 3
China →Shortage riskChina supplies 98% of gallium, so a China-targeted trade shock would very quickly tighten global gallium availability.
95% confidenceChina →Shortage riskChina accounts for 95% of terbium metal supply, making this input highly vulnerable to any China trade disruption.
94% confidenceChina →Shortage riskArtificial Plant Plastics (PE/PP/PVC + Wire)
With 94.8% of supply coming from China, this input would become sharply scarcer if China-linked trade flows are restricted.
Hop 4
Terbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskChina accounts for 95% of Tb metal supply, so sanctions that disrupt Chinese firms can heavily constrain this source.
90% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskChina Southern Rare Earth Group
Tb metal is a highly concentrated, long-replacement input for this firm, so tighter Chinese trade flows would constrain its supply.
89% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskTb metal is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so a Tb supply restriction should transmit strongly into magnet production.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Cosmetics & makeup · Industrial gases · Cookware & kitchen tools · Rare earth magnets · Home décor · Semiconductors and chips
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