TOR is back, ready to champion energy security
The refinery/energy operator is resuming activity, implying added fuel processing and domestic supply availability.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Electricity (Refinery Operations), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical, one-to-one input to gasoline and diesel, so TOR's resumed refining should raise output availability.
94% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical input to home heating oil, so higher refinery throughput should increase supply.
93% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseRestarting gasoline and diesel production raises crude runs directly, which tightens demand for crude feedstock and can lift its price.
88% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseHigher refinery throughput increases demand for refinery-grade hydrogen used in upgrading and hydrotreating units.
74% confidencePetróleos del Perú (Petroperú) →Prices riseIf Petroperú resumes activity and processes more fuel, it will consume more marine diesel and bunker fuel as operating inputs, but the edge is small and reasonably substitutable so the effect is limited.
62% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen)
If additional refinery hydrogen is produced via SMR, the extra hydrogen pull passes through to natural-gas feedstock demand.
62% confidenceHop 2
Home heating oil →Prices riseResuming home-heating-oil production raises crude throughput demand immediately, which should lift crude feedstock prices.
94% confidenceMarine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →supply upMarine diesel and bunker fuel is a critical input for seafood and fish production, so added fuel availability should materially support output availability.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseMore hydrotreating and refining activity requires more refinery-grade hydrogen, tightening demand for that input.
Hop 3
Linde plc →Prices riseRestarted refining raises refinery-grade hydrogen consumption, and Linde’s 35% share with 18-month replacement lead time makes that hydrogen market likely to tighten and reprice upward.
81% confidenceAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. →supply upTOR's refinery restart increases refinery throughput and should raise the availability of refinery-grade hydrogen that Air Products depends on as an input.
68% confidenceHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Stands to benefitHop 4
Topsoe A/S →Prices riseHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
TOR’s restart should lift demand for hydrotreating catalysts, and Topsoe’s 40% share with low substitutability and an 8-month replacement lead time makes a price increase plausible.
62% confidenceVacuum and Modified Atmosphere Packaging →Stands to benefitCanada is the largest listed sourcing share for this input, so stronger demand for packaging should disproportionately support Canadian supply/export activity.
61% confidenceVacuum and Modified Atmosphere Packaging →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Seafood and fish
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.