Iran urges U.S. to accept proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would restore a key oil and LNG shipping chokepoint.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Frontline plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upThis feedstock is a critical 95%-strength input to jet fuel, so restored crude flows through Hormuz should raise jet fuel availability.
92% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil has a meaningful 9% input share on this feedstock, so the supply recovery should modestly benefit its operations by easing input constraints.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon's 7% share on this input makes it a clear beneficiary of the eased feedstock constraint.
77% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitValero has a sizable 7.5% input share and only moderate substitutability, so more feedstock should benefit it.
77% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upRecovered Hormuz crude flows ease crude input constraints on this 0.75-dependent link, so jet fuel supply should improve.
76% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitMotiva's smaller 3.75% share is still enough that the feedstock recovery should help, though less than the larger refiners.
72% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitPhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 has a smaller 3% share, so the benefit from improved feedstock supply is real but more limited.
71% confidencePanamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →supply upPotash and phosphate fertilizers
As shipping disruption eases, lower bulk-freight frictions make fertilizer cargoes easier to move, increasing delivered supply.
46% confidencePanamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →supply upCheaper, more available bulk freight reduces transport bottlenecks for steel-related shipments, improving supply.
43% confidencePanamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →supply upRecovered bulk-vessel capacity eases grain transport constraints, supporting higher availability of grain-linked food goods.
41% confidenceHop 2
Phillips 66 →Prices easePhillips 66 is a material customer of Chord Energy (21% of Chord's 2025 product sales), so a broad crude price decline from restored Hormuz flows should दब চাপ on Chord's realized sales prices and revenue.
90% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Recovered Hormuz crude flows should make Marathon's Gulf Coast crude feedstock more available and cheaper, though the sourced share is only moderate and somewhat substitutable.
90% confidenceJet fuel →supply upHop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical input with dependency_strength=1, so recovering supply can raise gasoline and diesel availability.
90% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upBecause this good also depends critically on crude oil feedstock, more feedstock should lift heating-oil availability.
90% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices easeValeroVLO
Aeromexico buys fuel from local suppliers such as Valero at benchmark-linked prices, so the drop in oil prices should translate into lower realized fuel prices for Valero on these sales.
Hop 4
Gasoline and diesel →supply upRecovered Hormuz crude flows directly ease the refinery's full-strength crude feedstock constraint, making crude oil feedstock more available for gasoline and diesel production.
94% confidenceChevron →Prices easeGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys fuel from suppliers such as Chevron at prices generally based on the Platts Oilgram Price Report, so lower crude prices should feed through to cheaper jet fuel.
91% confidenceValero →supply up
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Steel and iron products · Bread, grains, and flour · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.