Ukraine attacked an airfield in Krasnodar and one of the largest oil refineries, located 150 km from St. Petersburg
A strike on a major oil refinery could reduce Russian fuel output and disrupt refined product supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
TogliattiAzot (ToAZ) →Shortage riskToAZ’s disrupted output would tighten ammonia supply; despite only a 2% share, the 24-month replacement lead time and moderate substitutability make the shortage nontrivial.
61% confidenceCargill, Incorporated (Ukraine / Black Sea operations) →Prices easeIf the strike curtails Cargill's Black Sea operations, its sunflower-seed purchases likely fall, creating mild downward pressure on that input; the dependency is only 8% and moderately substitutable.
56% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskHop 2
Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →Shortage riskAnhydrous ammonia is a critical input for fertilizer and crop-input production, so a supply shock tightens this downstream good.
95% confidenceSunflower seeds →Shortage riskSunflower seeds are a critical input to cooking oils, so a supply disruption here should directly constrain cooking-oil output.
90% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →Shortage riskThe strike on a Russian ammonia-producing site directly reduces Russia's ammonia supply share.
Hop 3
Ukraine →DelaysThe company disclosed partial destruction of its Ukraine network, so renewed strikes in Ukraine can further delay telecom service restoration and continuity.
93% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskPGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr)
The graph says Russia accounts for 100% of this ore supply, so a Russia-side disruption can fully constrain availability.
93% confidenceRussia →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Fertilizers and crop inputs · Cooking oils · Potash and phosphate fertilizers
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.