OPEC+ set to hold oil output steady as Iran war disrupts supply

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Gasoline and diesel are direct outputs that critically depend on crude oil feedstock, so a persistent crude supply constraint transmits almost one-for-one into tighter availability.

   98% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock has a critical 0.95 dependency strength into jet fuel, so continued crude supply constraints directly reduce jet fuel availability.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is another direct refinery product made from crude oil feedstock, so constrained crude supply tightens its supply as well.

2. Hop 2

   Phillips 66 →Prices ease

   Chord Energy CorporationCHRD

   Chord Energy disclosed that sales to Phillips 66 were about 21% of total product sales, so a Phillips 66 feedstock constraint likely reduces Chord's customer demand and pressures its realized prices/revenue.

   92% confidence

   Home heating oil →Shortage risk

   End-Use Combustion & Emissions

   Less home heating oil available directly reduces the volume that can be burned at end use.

   91% confidence

   Jet fuel →Shortage risk

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Jet fuel production is critically dependent on this feedstock, so a persistent crude-output constraint keeps the input tight and limits jet fuel availability.

3. Hop 3

   Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Because gasoline and diesel production depends critically on hydrotreating catalysts, a catalyst shortage tightens fuel supply.

   90% confidence

   Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Hydrotreating catalysts are a critical input to refining, so a shortage constrains home heating oil output.

   89% confidence

   Corn Ethanol (fuel-grade) →Stands to benefit

   United States

   Fuel-grade corn ethanol supply is 95% U.S.-sourced, so a petroleum-fuel squeeze that boosts ethanol blending should primarily benefit U.S. ethanol producers.