Countries burn oil reserves but avoid chaos

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude reserve drawdowns directly raise availability of a critical input with dependency_strength=1, so gasoline and diesel supply should ease materially.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil also has a critical, one-to-one dependency on crude oil feedstock, so reserve drawdowns should improve its supply.

   97% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical input to jet fuel, so reserve drawdowns that relieve the feedstock constraint should increase jet fuel availability.

2. Hop 2

   Irving Oil →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Strategic reserve drawdowns add crude supply, easing the feedstock constraint for Irving Oil despite the input not being a sole supplier.

   88% confidence

   Valero Energy →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Strategic reserve drawdowns temporarily loosen crude supply, so Valero's Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock should become less scarce.

   87% confidence

   PBF Energy →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Strategic reserve drawdowns temporarily relax crude tightness, which can make PBF's feedstock more available despite the input being non-sole and moderately substitutable.

3. Hop 3

   Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →supply up

   Asphalt and paving materials

   Bitumen/asphalt binder is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so easing crude supply should increase downstream availability.

   85% confidence

   Grupo Aeromexico →supply up

   Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos)

   Grupo Aeromexico's jet fuel at MEX depends on Pemex's only dedicated turbosine pipeline from Tula, so strategic reserve drawdowns that ease fuel shortages should materially increase the availability of that supply route.

   68% confidence

   Fish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →supply up

   Seafood and fish

4. Hop 4

   Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) →supply up

   Grupo AeromexicoAERO

   Pemex's refinery in Tula is the sole dedicated jet-fuel pipeline source to MEX airport, so a reserve-drawdown relief that eases Pemex fuel supply pressure should increase Aeromexico's jet-fuel availability.

   72% confidence

   Phillips 66 Company →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Strategic reserve releases add crude supply and directly ease Phillips 66's jet-fraction feedstock availability, though the dependency is only modestly concentrated and substitutable.

   72% confidence

   Asphalt and paving materials →supply up