Peabody Energy suspended operations
Coal production has been halted or curtailed, reducing near-term supply of thermal and metallurgical coal.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Warrior Met Coal, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Warrior Met Coal →Shortage riskWarrior Met Coal’s reduced output directly tightens supply of metallurgical (coking) coal, though the effect is moderated by its small ~2% market share and available substitutes.
95% confidenceMetallurgical (coking) coal →Prices riseMetallurgical coal is a critical input to steel and iron products, so a supply cut tightens that input chain and pushes steelmaking costs and prices higher.
92% confidenceHop 2
Steel and iron products →Prices easeIron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets)
With steel and iron products output constrained by the coking-coal shock, demand for the main iron-bearing feedstock falls.
77% confidenceSteel and iron products →Prices easeLower steel output trims demand for alloying inputs such as manganese ore.
68% confidenceSteel and iron products →Prices easeFerroalloys (manganese, chromium, silicon)
Less steelmaking means less demand for alloying additions like ferroalloys.
Hop 3
Ferroalloys (manganese, chromium, silicon) →Prices riseFerroalloys are direct inputs into steel and iron products, so tighter ferroalloy supply raises steelmakers' input costs; the 0.55 dependency suggests a meaningful but not dominant transmission.
73% confidenceRefractory materials (magnesia-carbon bricks) →Prices easeRHI MagnesitaRHIM
As a 35% supplier of magnesia-carbon bricks, RHI Magnesita is exposed to weaker demand and pricing if reduced steel output cuts refractory consumption.
66% confidenceIndustrial oxygen (99.5% purity) →Prices easeHop 4
Australia →Shortage riskAustralia supplies about 55% of global metallurgical coal, so a major production cut materially tightens this feedstock.
90% confidenceVale S.A. →Shortage riskIron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets)
Vale supplies about 23% of direct-shipping ore and pellet supply, so a production cut at Vale would materially tighten iron ore availability.
86% confidenceRHI Magnesita →Shortage risk