Neptun Deep advances towards first gas, expected in the first half of 2027
A new offshore gas project is moving toward first production, adding future natural gas supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Shell plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Natural gas wellhead production →supply upA new offshore gas project reaching first gas directly increases natural gas wellhead output, which feeds through this critical, fully dependent supply edge to more available residential natural gas.
97% confidenceShell plc →supply upNatural gas wellhead production
Neptun Deep adds future natural gas supply, which should ease Shell’s exposure to natural gas as an input, but this modeled dependency is relatively small at 3.5% market share.
67% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Neptun Deep's added gas volumes should ease availability for this more gas-intensive input, and this edge has the larger dependency share with lower substitutability.
Hop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →supply upAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so added gas supply should directly raise ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer availability.
97% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitInterstate natural gas transmission pipelines
More offshore gas supply should raise throughput on interstate pipelines that move the gas to market.
86% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Interstate natural gas transmission pipelines →supply upInterstate natural gas pipelines are the national transport backbone, so added gas supply increases availability across the U.S. market.
82% confidenceInterstate natural gas transmission pipelines →supply upNortheast US (New England + Mid-Atlantic)
This region accounts for 28% of the pipeline network's supplied demand, so more gas supply raises availability there.
80% confidenceInterstate natural gas transmission pipelines →supply upMidwest US (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan)
This region represents 25% of the pipeline network's supplied demand, so the added gas supply should raise local availability.
Hop 4
Caterpillar Energy & Transportation (Parent) →Stands to benefitNatural gas compressor stations & engines
More offshore gas supply typically requires additional compression equipment and engines, and Caterpillar has a disclosed 40% share in that market.
83% confidenceChart Industries, Inc. →Prices easeLNG peak-shaving and import facilitiesGTLS
Added domestic gas supply reduces reliance on LNG imports and peak-shaving capacity, weakening the market Chart serves in this segment.
74% confidenceArkema S.A. →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Natural gas (home) · Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.