US tariffs on Mexican products to rise above 80 percent

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Mexico fresh horticultural imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Prices rise

   Fresh produce staples

   Fresh produce staples are a critical downstream good fed by this input, so an 80%+ tariff on Mexican horticultural imports lifts landed costs and pushes prices higher.

   94% confidence

   Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk

   Mexico

   Mexico accounts for 65% of the linked import stream, so tariffs that hit Mexican products directly cut shipment volume and availability from the main source.

   91% confidence

   Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Prices rise

   Calavo Growers, Inc.CVGW

   Calavo has an 8% linked share and only moderate substitutability, so the tariff should raise its procurement costs.

2. Hop 2

   Mexico →Prices rise

   Blue Weber Agave (Tequila)

   Mexico supplies 100% of this input, so an 80%+ tariff on Mexican imports would sharply raise its landed cost and likely force sourcing changes.

   96% confidence

   Mexico →Prices rise

   Corn Masa Flour (Nixtamal)

   Mexico accounts for 89% of supply, so the tariff shock would materially increase import costs for this input and disrupt trade flows.

   95% confidence

   Mexico →Prices rise

   Pyrotechnic Airbag Inflator / Gas Generator

   With 83.5% of supply from Mexico, the tariff would materially raise the cost of this Mexico-sourced automotive component.

3. Hop 3

   Pyrotechnic Airbag Inflator / Gas Generator →Prices ease

   Mexico

   Mexico supplies 83.5% of this input, so the tariff should sharply displace Mexican exports and reduce the value captured by Mexican suppliers.

   96% confidence

   Large-Format Display Panel (LCD/OLED TV) →Prices ease

   Mexico

   Mexico supplies 82.4% of this panel input, so an 80%+ tariff on Mexican products sharply reduces US demand for Mexico-sourced panels and pressures realized export prices.

   96% confidence

   Large-Format Display Panel (LCD/OLED TV) →Prices rise

   Televisions

   Televisions are a critical downstream use of large-format display panels (dependency_strength 0.95), so the tariff-driven panel cost shock passes through very strongly.

4. Hop 4

   Tequila Herradura (Brown-Forman Corporation) →Prices rise

   Blue Weber Agave (Tequila)

   The tariff shock makes this Mexican agave input costlier to source, and the 84-month replacement lead time limits rapid substitution despite the relatively low 6% share.

   79% confidence

   Grupo Cuervo (Jose Cuervo / La Rojeña) →Prices ease

   Blue Weber Agave (Tequila)

   If US tariffs suppress Grupo Cuervo’s tequila sales into the US, the company will need less blue Weber agave, easing demand for that input and putting downward pressure on agave prices.

   43% confidence