Analyst says Trump's new tariff will pressure Indonesia's labor-intensive industry
The headline indicates a new tariff that could raise costs and reduce exports for Indonesia's labor-intensive manufacturers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Footwear, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Footwear →Prices easeEVA Copolymer (Footwear Midsole Foam)
If the tariff trims Indonesia's footwear exports and output, demand for this critical midsole material should soften, pressuring its price.
79% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeSynthetic Footwear Upper Material (PU/PET)
Lower footwear production after the tariff should reduce purchases of upper materials, easing demand and prices for this critical input.
76% confidenceFurniture →Prices easeHop 2
Synthetic Footwear Upper Material (PU/PET) →Shortage riskThe current input is a critical footwear input, so a tariff that raises costs and suppresses exports from labor-intensive producers can tighten availability for footwear manufacturers.
67% confidenceRaw Cotton Fiber →Prices easeIf the tariff curbs Indonesia's apparel exports, raw cotton fiber demand softens, which pressures prices for a major source country with a 25% supply share.
61% confidenceRaw Cotton Fiber →Prices easeA weaker downstream apparel market can reduce cotton-fiber orders, putting downward price pressure on China given its large 23% supply share.
Hop 3
Indonesia →Prices riseGap discloses that about 21% of its fiscal 2025 purchases came from factories in Indonesia, so a tariff on Indonesian manufacturing would raise sourcing costs on a material share of its procurement.
95% confidenceVietnam →Prices riseOn Holding AGONON
On disclosed that approximately 90% of its footwear products were produced in Vietnam, making it highly exposed to a Vietnam tariff.
93% confidenceVietnam →Prices riseHop 4
NIKE, Inc. →Shortage riskIf tariff pressure constrains Nike’s supply or raises its costs, Shoe Carnival’s Nike-branded inventory and sales can tighten, and the filing indicates Nike is a material share of its net sales (about 24%).
61% confidenceOn Holding AG →Shortage riskDick's Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS
On Holding's wholesale channel is 58.2% of net sales and Dick's Sporting Goods is a disclosed key account, so any upstream supply squeeze can reduce product availability to this customer.
57% confidenceOn Holding AG →Shortage risk