Iran loaded zero crude oil in September, Bessent says
The headline indicates a complete stoppage of crude oil loadings from Iran, implying a sharp near-term reduction in export supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical direct input to jet fuel, so a crude supply shock should immediately tighten jet fuel availability.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskGasoline and diesel are direct outputs from crude oil feedstock, so a crude export stoppage tightens their supply quickly.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is another direct crude-derived product, so reduced crude availability constrains output and raises tightness.
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel is highly dependent on crude feedstock, so a crude export stoppage tightens the feedstock market and raises its cost.
88% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts
Lower gasoline and diesel output reduces demand for FCC catalyst consumption in refining.
87% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
Lower gasoline and diesel output cuts demand for hydrotreating catalysts used in fuel upgrading.
Hop 3
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Prices easeChina dominates lanthanum oxide supply at 85%, so the additive-demand slump mostly transmits there as lower output and pricing.
81% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Prices easeChina Northern Rare Earth Group600111.SS
Lower gasoline/diesel throughput reduces demand for FCC additive lanthanum oxide, and this 45% supplier would face weaker sales and price pressure.
74% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Prices ease
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.