Fertiliser stocks short of annual demand
Low fertilizer stocks imply constrained availability for agricultural input supply and potential downstream crop production impacts.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Fertilizers and crop inputs, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Fertilizers and crop inputs →Shortage riskDiammonium Phosphate (DAP)
The cited report says DAP reserves are already below the safety threshold, which is a direct shortage signal for a key phosphate fertilizer.
“China is a major source of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), whose reserves of 3.90 lakh tonnes have fallen below the 5-lakh tonne safety threshold.”
96% confidenceCited →Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Shortage riskInland Distribution to Farm
Low fertilizer stocks directly constrain the volume available to move through the farm-distribution step, reducing availability for growers.
93% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Shortage riskUrea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N)
Urea is a core finished nitrogen fertilizer, so a broad fertilizer stock shortfall should directly tighten its availability.
80% confidenceAnimal feed →Shortage riskSoybean Meal (Animal Feed Protein)
Fertiliser stock shortages can reduce crop output, and soybean meal is a critical, high-dependency protein input to animal feed, so its availability tightens.
58% confidenceHop 2
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Shortage riskUrea is a critical input to the broader fertilizers and crop-inputs category, so short urea stocks directly constrain that category's availability.
96% confidenceSoybean Meal (Animal Feed Protein) →Shortage riskSoybean meal is a critical, high-dependency input to animal feed, so tighter soybean-meal supply directly constrains feed production.
78% confidenceUrea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Stands to benefitChina supplies a large share of urea, so a tight urea market can improve export pricing and returns for Chinese suppliers.
Hop 3
Russia →Shortage riskUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Russia supplies 53.8% of UAN Solution in the graph, so a Russian fertilizer-stock shortfall would likely constrain UAN availability materially.
84% confidenceIndia →Shortage riskIndia supplies 80% of turmeric, so fertilizer-driven crop production constraints in India can tighten turmeric availability.
60% confidenceIndia →Shortage riskCurcumin Extract (Nutraceutical / Anti-Inflammatory)
India supplies 82% of curcumin extract, and crop-input stress in India can reduce downstream extract supply.
Hop 4
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
UAN Solution is an input to the broader ammonia/nitrogen fertilizer category, so a stock shortfall directly tightens that supply.
79% confidenceTurmeric (Curcuma longa) →Prices riseTurmeric is an input to the broader spices & seasonings category, so a crop shortfall mainly transmits as higher input costs rather than a full category shortage.
78% confidenceCurcumin Extract (Nutraceutical / Anti-Inflammatory) →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Fertilizers and crop inputs · Animal feed · Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Spices & seasonings · Vitamins & dietary supplements
Companies you may own
Olam Food Ingredients (ofi)MKCSabinsa Corporation
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.