Gas pumping on the European branch of the Turkish stream pipeline in July fell 5%
Gas flows through the European branch of the TurkStream pipeline fell, reducing supply into downstream markets.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Equinor ASA, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskTurkey and Southern/Eastern Europe gas markets
The European branch of TurkStream is a Gazprom export route supplying Turkey and Southern/Eastern Europe, and July throughput on that branch fell 5%, tightening downstream gas availability there.
“Прокачка газа по европейской нитке газопровода "Турецкий поток", по которой российский газ через территорию Турции поступает на юг Европы, в июле 2026 года составила 1,366 млрд куб. м, что на 5% меньше, чем годом ранее.”
95% confidenceCited →Equinor ASA →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Reduced European gas supply can raise Equinor's cost for natural gas used in Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, with a somewhat larger impact given the 8% share and lower substitutability.
61% confidenceEquinor ASA →Hop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical feedstock and fuel for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production, so a supply reduction propagates very strongly to this good.
98% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskYara has a large natural-gas exposure and low substitutability, so a TurkStream-linked gas supply dip can materially constrain feedstock availability.
93% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskHop 3
Russia →Shortage riskPGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr)
The supplied graph assigns 100% of this input to Russia, so a Russia supply shock can fully constrain this ore.
90% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
With 53.8% of supply coming from Russia, the Russia shock implies a material supply shortfall for this input.
84% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel
Russia accounts for 46% of supply here, so the Russia shock would meaningfully tighten availability even if it is not total.
Hop 4
PGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskMMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel)GMKN
This ore node is a 100% input to Nornickel, with sole-qualified-supplier status, very low substitutability, and a 120-month replacement lead time, so any upstream disruption tightly constrains the company.
86% confidencePGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskPalladium and platinum group metals
The current ore is a critical, high-dependency input to palladium and other platinum group metals, so a supply hit here should reduce output availability.
82% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Palladium and platinum group metals
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.