SAŞ sold Venezuelan oil for $1.3 billion, after which Maduro confiscated it
The confiscation creates a supply disruption risk around Venezuelan crude oil and the company involved.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Nynas AB, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskVenezuela supplies 2.3% of this crude import mix, so confiscation-driven disruption trims a small but direct source slice.
80% confidenceNynas AB →Shortage riskNynas’s 8% share of bitumen/asphalt binder supply, plus low substitutability and a 12-month replacement lead time, means a company-level disruption can materially tighten this commodity.
74% confidenceNynas AB →Shortage riskTransformer Mineral Oil (Naphthenic Base Oil)
If the Venezuela-linked shock tightens Nynas's operating/feedstock position, its 20% share supply of transformer mineral oil is likely to tighten, though the 0.55 substitutability and ~3-month replacement lead time limit the severity.
Hop 2
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskBitumen/asphalt binder is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so a supply disruption at this node should strongly propagate as shortage.
98% confidenceVenezuela →Shortage riskVenezuela supplies 3.5% of crude oil feedstock, so a confiscation tied to Venezuelan oil can reduce available feedstock.
94% confidenceVenezuela →Shortage riskVenezuela accounts for 7.6% of supply, so the oil seizure can tighten this petroleum-derived input.
Hop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskJet fuel is a critical downstream output that depends very heavily on this feedstock, so a Venezuelan crude disruption tightens available supply.
94% confidencePetroleum Coke (Fuel Grade) →Shortage riskFuel-grade petroleum coke is a critical input here, so a tighter petcoke supply can directly constrain cement and concrete output.
82% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
Hop 4
Mexico →Shortage riskMexico supplies 100% of this input, so a Mexico disruption directly constrains availability.
99% confidenceMexico →Shortage riskMexico supplies 89% of this input, so disruption there would materially reduce supply.
97% confidenceMexico →Shortage riskPyrotechnic Airbag Inflator / Gas Generator
With 83.5% of supply tied to Mexico, a Mexico shock would create a substantial shortage risk.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Asphalt and paving materials · Electric grid transformers · Jet fuel · Cement and concrete
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.