Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply
A Saudi pipeline outage could remove a meaningful share of global crude oil supply and disrupt tanker/feedstock flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →DelaysSaudi Arabia supplies 4.9% of Canadian crude oil imports, so a hit to its east-west pipeline would mainly slow or interrupt that source, with only limited aggregate impact because the share is small.
74% confidenceSaudi Aramco →DelaysA strike on Aramco-linked pipeline infrastructure would slow crude movement into its downstream operations, and the edge's moderate substitutability plus 3-month replacement lead time point to a material logistics delay rather than a total outage.
53% confidenceSaudi Aramco →Prices easeHop 2
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage riskSaudi Aramco2222
A successful pipeline attack in Saudi Arabia can reduce Saudi Aramco's LPG throughput or exportability, and its 8% supply share makes the disruption material.
86% confidenceLPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Shortage riskSaudi Arabia's own 8% share of LPG supply is exposed to transport disruption from damaged pipeline infrastructure, so available supply can tighten.
84% confidenceSaudi Arabia →Shortage riskHop 3
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskBitumen/asphalt binder is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so a Saudi supply disruption can directly constrain that downstream good.
97% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage riskThe NGL stream is a critical input to home-use propane, so a Saudi-linked disruption can directly tighten propane availability.
96% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskHop 4
Fertilizers and crop inputs →Shortage riskSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production
A disruption to elemental sulfur from oil/gas processing tightens sulfuric acid supply, and sulfuric acid is a critical reagent for phosphate fertilizer production.
86% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →DelaysPhosphoric Acid Production (Wet Process)
If sulfuric acid becomes scarce, the wet-process phosphoric acid step slows because it depends on that reagent for phosphate fertilizer manufacture.
78% confidencePalladium and platinum group metals →Prices riseDiesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power)
A successful Saudi pipeline disruption can tighten crude and refined fuel markets, making the diesel/HFO input used in PGM mining and backup power more expensive.
Hop 5
SandRidge Energy, Inc. →Prices riseTarga Resources Corp. (Targa Pipeline Mid-Continent West OK LLC)TRGP
SandRidge disclosed that this buyer accounted for 32.6% of revenue, so a Saudi-driven oil price shock can pass through to Targa as higher purchase costs.
44% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Asphalt and paving materials · Propane (home use) · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Sulfuric acid · Seafood and fish · Cement and concrete · Palladium and platinum group metals
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.