Rare earth magnets →Prices rise
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal
Rare-earth magnets have a 0.98 critical dependency on NdPr oxide/metal, so a state takeover affecting NdPr rare-earth supply would likely raise this input cost for magnet production.
78% confidence
Rare earth magnets →Shortage risk
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder
NdFeB alloy strip and jet-mill powder is a 0.88 critical precursor for rare-earth magnets, so constrained rare-earth feedstock availability should reduce or delay this intermediate supply.
68% confidence
China →Shortage risk
Terbium (Tb) Metal
China's 95% supply share in terbium metal makes this rare-earth input highly vulnerable to a China-linked rare-earth availability shock.
66% confidence
MP Materials Corp. →Prices rise
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal
MP Materials' reported 15% supply share, low substitutability, and 24-month replacement lead time make NdPr oxide/metal prices vulnerable if a rare-earth/NdPr shock reaches MP.
64% confidence
Rare earth magnets →Prices rise
Dysprosium (Dy) Metal
Dysprosium metal is a 0.90 critical input to rare-earth magnets, so broad rare-earth supply nationalization could raise costs for this co-input, though the path so far is NdPr-specific.
58% confidence
China →Shortage risk
Gallium
China's 98% supply share makes gallium highly exposed if the China-linked semiconductor-material availability shock disrupts supply.
58% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Rare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb)
Lynas has an 8% share in rare-earth oxides with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so the rare-earth supply shock can transmit as moderate price pressure in this basket.
56% confidence
Rare earth magnets →Prices rise
Terbium (Tb) Metal
Terbium metal is a 0.85 critical input to rare-earth magnets, so a broad rare-earth supply takeover could increase its cost, with lower confidence because the established path is through NdPr.
56% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Dysprosium (Dy) Metal
Lynas supplies dysprosium metal with a 5% market share, low substitutability, and a 72-month replacement lead time, making price pressure plausible but bounded by its limited share.
55% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Terbium (Tb) Metal
Lynas is a non-sole but hard-to-replace supplier of terbium metal, with a 3% market share, very low substitutability, and an 84-month replacement lead time, so a rare-earth shock transmitted to Lynas can modestly lift Tb pricing.
53% confidence
MP Materials Corp. →Delays
NdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators
The edge assigns MP a 15% share with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so constrained NdPr-linked supply at MP could stretch lead times for wind-turbine NdFeB magnets.
50% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Mischmetal / Lanthanum (NiMH anode alloy)
Lynas supplies this lanthanum-linked rare-earth input with a 10% market share, but higher substitutability and a shorter 24-month replacement lead time limit the transmitted price effect.
50% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive)
Lynas supplies lanthanum oxide with a 7% share, but moderate substitutability and an 18-month replacement lead time keep the likely price transmission limited.
49% confidence
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise
Cerium Oxide (glass polishing compound)
Lynas supplies cerium oxide with an 8% share, but the propagation is weaker because substitutability is higher and replacement lead time is shorter than for heavy rare-earth metals.
47% confidence
MP Materials Corp. →Prices rise
Rare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb)
MP's 5% share of rare-earth oxides with low substitutability and a 48-month replacement lead time supports a smaller but defensible price transmission to Nd/Pr-containing oxide supply.
46% confidence
MP Materials Corp. →Delays
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder
Although MP's share is only 2%, the low substitutability and 48-month replacement lead time make NdFeB alloy and powder supply susceptible to modest delays from an MP-linked rare-earth constraint.
44% confidence
MP Materials Corp. →Prices rise
U.S. Department of War (DoW)
The supplied edge identifies DoW as a disclosed customer under an offtake arrangement, so higher MP rare-earth or start-up costs could pass through to that customer, though no dependency percentage is provided.
43% confidence
