Tropical Storm Isaias to threaten Gulf Coast as a dangerous hurricane
A major hurricane threat could disrupt Gulf Coast refining, petrochemicals, ports, and offshore oil operations.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Marathon Petroleum Corporation, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Phillips 66 →Prices easePhillips 66 refinery disruption from a Gulf storm can cut offtake from Chord, and 21% of Chord's product sales go to Phillips 66.
84% confidencePhillips 66 →Shortage riskCalcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) — Aluminum Anodes
A Gulf Coast disruption can tighten Phillips 66 supply of calcined petroleum coke, and the edge shows only 30% substitutability with a 6-month replacement lag.
82% confidencePhillips 66 →Shortage riskEthylene monomer (polymer grade)
Gulf Coast petrochemical disruptions can curtail Phillips 66 ethylene monomer supply, with moderate substitutability and a 3-month replacement window.
Hop 2
Ethylene monomer (polymer grade) →Shortage riskEthylene monomer is a critical feedstock for this packaging output, and the edge shows very high dependency strength (0.95) with critical status.
97% confidenceLinear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) resin →Shortage riskLLDPE resin is a critical, high-dependency input for trash bags and plastic wrap, so a Gulf Coast petrochemical disruption can directly constrain their supply.
92% confidenceCalcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) — Aluminum Anodes →Shortage riskHop 3
Gasoline and diesel →DelaysAtmospheric & Vacuum Distillation (CDU/VDU)
This is a core refinery unit that is directly vulnerable to hurricane-related downtime.
95% confidenceGasoline and diesel →DelaysHydrocracking & Hydrotreating
Hydroprocessing units are core refinery bottlenecks and often stop or slow during hurricane outages.
94% confidenceUnited States →Prices riseSlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.SLDE
Because nearly all gross premiums written are from Florida customers, a Gulf Coast hurricane threat is likely to raise claims and underwriting loss costs for this insurer.
94% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Trash bags and plastic wrap · Aluminum and aluminum products · Home heating oil · Gasoline and diesel · Cement and concrete
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