U.S.-Canada trade talks suddenly break down; tariffs on all goods rise to 50%
A broad tariff escalation would raise costs and disrupt trade flows across U.S.-Canada goods supply chains.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskCanada supplies 60.9% of this import stream, so a U.S.-Canada tariff shock is most likely to choke off that source flow and hurt Canadian export volumes.
84% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Prices riseJet fuel depends heavily on this input (dependency_strength 0.75), so tariff-driven disruption can tighten feedstock supply and lift jet-fuel prices.
80% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →Prices riseA collapsed US-Canada trade deal would make Canadian crude imports used in jet fuel more expensive and less reliable because the tariff/friction hits a direct feedstock input.
91% confidenceCanada →Prices riseSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash)
Canada supplies 100% of this input, so Canada–US tariff friction can directly raise delivered cost and disrupt availability.
90% confidenceCanada →Prices riseHop 3
Linear Alkylbenzene (LAB) →Shortage riskCleaning and sanitation supplies
LAB is a critical input to cleaning and sanitation supplies, so a tariff-driven squeeze on LAB availability propagates as downstream scarcity.
81% confidenceArgon Gas (insulating glass fill) →Shortage riskArgon gas is a direct insulating-glass input, and the 0.55 dependency means a Canada-driven argon supply squeeze can make glass and windows harder to produce.
78% confidenceHDPE Resin (bottle packaging) →Shortage riskHop 4
Compass Minerals International →Prices riseSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash)
A US-Canada tariff shock can raise landed cost and friction for Compass Minerals' Saskatchewan potash brine input, and its 15% market share with a 36-month replacement lead time makes the impact material.
70% confidenceCEPSA →Prices riseCEPSA relies on LAB for 18% of this input stream, and the 12-month replacement lead time with only moderate substitutability means tariff-driven trade friction would likely raise its input cost before it can be easily swapped out.
66% confidencePotash and phosphate fertilizers →DelaysBulk Export Logistics
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Cleaning and sanitation supplies · Glass and windows · Potash and phosphate fertilizers
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.