Phillips 66 →Prices rise
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
The Iran-war oil shock pushes up crude benchmarks, and Phillips 66's jet-fraction feedstock becomes more expensive with only moderate substitutability and a multi-month replacement lag.
92% confidence
British Petroleum →Prices rise
Calumet, Inc.CLMT
BP supplies roughly 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil, so an Iran-driven crude price spike passes through strongly as higher feedstock cost.
92% confidence
Lubricants and motor oil →Prices rise
Base oils (Group II/III)
Lubricants and motor oil are critically dependent on Group II/III base oils, so a crude-supply shock that lifts oil prices should raise base-oil input costs.
91% confidence
Valero →Prices rise
Grupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys fuel from Valero and prices are tied to Platt's oil benchmarks, so higher oil prices are likely to pass through as higher fuel costs.
90% confidence
British Petroleum →Stands to benefit
W&T Offshore, Inc.WTI
BP Products North America buys about 33% of W&T's output, so higher oil prices lift W&T's realized sales revenue from that customer.
88% confidence
Marathon Petroleum Corporation →Prices rise
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Iran-related crude supply disruption directly raises Marathon's feedstock cost for this already-linked Gulf Coast crude input; the edge's 7% share and 3-month replacement lead time make the effect material but not dominant.
86% confidence
Valero Energy →Prices rise
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A war-driven crude supply shock raises benchmark oil prices, and this refinery feedstock is a direct input with only moderate substitutability and a multi-month replacement lag.
86% confidence
Valero →Prices rise
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Iran-related crude supply disruption pushes up Valero's crude feedstock costs, and this input has only moderate substitutability with a multi-month replacement lead time.
86% confidence
Motiva Enterprises LLC →Prices rise
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Iran-related crude supply pressure would lift the price of Motiva's Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock, and the edge's 6-month replacement lead time with only 0.35 substitutability limits fast substitution.
82% confidence
British Petroleum →Prices rise
Grupo AeromexicoAERO
BP is one of Grupo Aeromexico's airport fuel suppliers, and rising crude prices raise the airline's jet-fuel costs.
80% confidence
Valero Energy →Prices rise
Grupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys fuel from suppliers including Valero at market-based prices, so an oil-price spike passes through to higher jet-fuel costs.
78% confidence
Phillips 66 →Stands to benefit
Chord Energy CorporationCHRD
Chord Energy is an upstream oil producer with 21% of its product sales to Phillips 66, so higher oil prices from the Iran conflict should improve its realized sales values.
78% confidence
Jet fuel →Stands to benefit
Canadian crude oil imports
As Middle East crude tightens and prices rise, Canadian imports can gain as a substitute source for Gulf Coast refiners.
72% confidence
Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) →Prices rise
Grupo AeromexicoAERO
PEMEX is the sole dedicated jet-fuel source for MEX via the Tula pipeline, so higher crude prices can pass through as higher fuel costs for Aeromexico with little substitution.
67% confidence
Gasoline and diesel →Stands to benefit
Corn Ethanol (fuel-grade)
As gasoline and diesel prices rise, fuel-grade ethanol becomes more competitive as a blendstock/substitute, so this input can benefit from the price shock.
57% confidence
