Rat sustiže rusko naftno srce: Moskva srezala prognozu na 17-godišnji minimum
Russia has cut its oil output forecast to a 17-year low, indicating reduced supply of crude oil.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Rosneft, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Rosneft →Prices easeA Rosneft production halt would likely reduce its demand for crude oil feedstock, easing prices, though Rosneft's share of that input market is only 4%.
69% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskCanadian crude oil imports are a major input into jet fuel production, so a crude-supply shock would likely tighten jet fuel availability.
62% confidenceRosneft →Prices easeIf Rosneft's operations are halted, its purchases of fuel-grade petroleum coke should fall, but the effect is modest because the edge only reflects a 3% market share.
Hop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a direct, critical input to gasoline and diesel, so a crude supply cut tightly constrains their availability.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is directly refined from crude, so reduced crude supply propagates as tighter output and scarcer supply.
97% confidenceJet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel depends critically on this crude feedstock, and a Russian output cut tightens global crude markets, pushing up its cost.
Hop 3
ExxonMobil →Prices riseRussia's reduced crude output tightens the crude feedstock market ExxonMobil relies on; with only moderate substitutability and a 3-month replacement lead time, its input costs likely rise.
83% confidenceMexico →Shortage riskMexico is the sole source country for blue Weber agave, so a Mexico supply shock directly constrains tequila-input availability.
70% confidenceMexico →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Cooking oils · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Cement and concrete
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.