TotalEnergies: Final exit from Russian Arctic LNG 2
A major energy company is exiting the Arctic LNG 2 project, affecting LNG development and related gas supply expectations.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
If sanctions around Arctic LNG 2 tighten Gazprom's gas export and operating flexibility, its wellhead output is one of the first links to fall, and this edge carries an 11% share with a very long replacement horizon.
56% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
A Gazprom supply squeeze would directly tighten this 15% share natural-gas stream, and the limited substitutability makes the shortage material.
52% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is the critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so a supply squeeze directly constrains ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer output.
96% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices riseYara has a large natural-gas exposure and very low substitutability, so tighter gas supply should raise its feedstock costs.
86% confidenceNatural Gas (Roasting Fuel) →Shortage riskHop 3
Russia →Shortage riskPGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr)
Russia supplies this input entirely from the Russian Arctic, so sanctions on Russia directly constrain its availability.
97% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Russia accounts for 53.8% of UAN Solution supply, so a Russia sanction shock materially tightens supply.
90% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel
Russia supplies 46% of LEU nuclear fuel, so sanctions can materially reduce availability and raise replacement pressure.
Hop 4
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Shortage riskUrea is a critical fertilizer input for rice, so a urea supply squeeze can reduce rice production and availability.
93% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage riskRussia accounts for 53.8% of this UAN solution supply, so a Russia-linked gas/sanctions shock is most likely to tighten Russian UAN availability.
85% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Prices riseAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
UAN solution is a key nitrogen-fertilizer input, so tighter UAN supply should lift prices across the broader ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer category.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Natural gas (home) · Rice · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Electricity (residential)
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.