Kyiv says no deal yet to halt strikes on refineries

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Refinery strikes directly curb conversion of crude feedstock into gasoline and diesel, and this edge is marked critical with full dependency strength.

   96% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Ongoing refinery disruptions also reduce output of home heating oil, which is a direct critical product of crude feedstock processing.

   95% confidence

   Irving Oil →Prices ease

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   If refinery strikes keep Irving Oil's fuel production constrained, its crude feedstock purchases stay subdued, which should दब downward pressure on crude input prices.

   84% confidence

   Electricity (Refinery Operations) →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil production depends materially on refinery electricity inputs (dependency_strength=0.65), so ongoing refinery production halts should keep output constrained.

   59% confidence

   PBF Energy →Prices rise

   Shell plcSHEL

   Shell is a disclosed PBF customer accounting for about 13% of revenue, and ongoing refinery strikes are pushing diesel/fuel prices higher, so Shell likely faces higher procurement costs from PBF.

   58% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Home heating oil →Prices ease

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   With refinery strikes suppressing home heating oil output, demand for crude feedstock used to make it falls sharply.

   95% confidence

   Home heating oil →Prices ease

   Hydrogen (refinery-grade)

   Lower refinery throughput reduces hydrogen consumption for hydrotreating, easing demand for refinery-grade hydrogen.

   93% confidence

   Home heating oil →Prices ease

   Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)

   If hydrotreating runs less because of the strike, catalyst consumption and replacement demand both drop.

3. Hop 3

   Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Refinery-grade hydrogen is a critical, high-dependency input for home heating oil production, so a refinery production halt should sharply constrain output.

   91% confidence

   Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Gasoline and diesel also depend materially on refinery-grade hydrogen, so continued refinery disruption should reduce supply and tighten availability.

   88% confidence

   Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil