← World Watch
Disruptiontariff · September 16, 2026
US Senate amendment mandates 100% secondary tariffs on top five Russian oil importers, including India
The amendment would materially raise the cost of importing Russian oil for major buyers, potentially rerouting crude trade flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefitIf Russian-oil buyers are pushed toward non-Russian crude, Canada—the source of 60.9% of this import mix—can capture substitution demand and benefit as a supplier.
52% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upMore available Canadian crude feedstock can ease refinery input constraints, so jet fuel supply becomes more available given the 0.75 crude-input dependency.
48% confidenceRosneft →Prices ease