Iron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets) →Shortage risk
Steel and iron products
Iron ore is a critical upstream feedstock for steel and iron products, so disrupted seaborne ore deliveries quickly tighten supply to steelmakers.
95% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Shortage risk
Bread, grains, and flour
Black Sea wheat is a critical 0.85-strength input to bread, grains, and flour, so shipping disruption should quickly tighten availability downstream.
90% confidence
Manganese ore →Shortage risk
Steel and iron products
Manganese ore is marked as a critical input for steel and iron products, so maritime shipping disruption can delay ore deliveries and tighten downstream supply.
88% confidence
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Delays
Australia
Australia supplies 55% of metallurgical coal, so a shipping shock most strongly delays its export flows.
87% confidence
Niobium / Ferroniobium (HSLA Steel + Superconductors) →Delays
Brazil
Brazil supplies 92% of niobium/ferroniobium, so a maritime chokepoint disruption is most likely to delay that dominant export flow.
87% confidence
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Delays
Steel and iron products
Metallurgical coal is a critical input to steelmaking, so maritime disruption to coal cargoes stretches lead times for steel and iron products.
84% confidence
Niobium / Ferroniobium (HSLA Steel + Superconductors) →Delays
Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineração (CBMM)
CBMM accounts for 77% of supply and has a very long replacement lead time, so shipping disruption can materially delay deliveries and tighten availability.
84% confidence
Ferroalloys (manganese, chromium, silicon) →Delays
Steel and iron products
Ferroalloys are a direct input to steel and iron products, so disrupted cargo flows can slow replenishment and stretch lead times for downstream steelmaking.
82% confidence
Iron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets) →Delays
Australia
Australia supplies 57% of iron ore, so maritime disruption would delay a dominant share of seaborne ore exports from this source.
82% confidence
Refractory materials (magnesia-carbon bricks) →Shortage risk
Steel and iron products
Magnesia-carbon bricks are marked as a critical input for steel and iron products, so shipping disruption should transmit as a supply shortage into that downstream sector.
79% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays
Bunge LimitedBG
With 18% exposure, low substitutability, and a six-month replacement lead time, disrupted Black Sea wheat cargoes are likely to delay Bunge's input flows.
77% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays
Kernel Holding S.A.
Kernel's 10% exposure and six-month replacement lead time make its Black Sea wheat inputs vulnerable to shipment delays.
76% confidence
Iron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets) →Delays
Brazil
Brazil's 23% share makes its iron ore exports materially exposed to shipping attacks, stretching delivery times and constraining flows.
76% confidence
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Delays
BHP GroupBHP
BHP's sizable metallurgical-coal output is exposed to delayed export cargo flows when maritime shipping is disrupted.
76% confidence
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Delays
GlencoreGLEN.L
Glencore's large coking-coal supply share means shipping disruptions can delay its coal shipments and associated sales.
75% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays
Ardent Mills
Ardent Mills has an 18% exposure and only moderate substitutability, so Black Sea shipping disruption should slow wheat deliveries into its supply chain.
74% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays
Cargill, Incorporated
Cargill's 15% exposure and three-month replacement lead time imply shipment delays rather than an immediate full replacement of Black Sea wheat.
73% confidence
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays
COFCO International Ltd.
COFCO's 12% exposure and three-month replacement lead time make it susceptible to delayed Black Sea wheat arrivals.
72% confidence
Ferroalloys (manganese, chromium, silicon) →Delays
Brazil
Brazil accounts for 16.2% of ferroalloy supply, so a maritime shipping disruption can most plausibly delay shipments from this major source.
66% confidence
Ferroalloys (manganese, chromium, silicon) →Delays
South Africa
South Africa supplies 12.4% of ferroalloys, making its export flows meaningfully exposed to shipping-related delays.
63% confidence
