Second Ukrainian strike on Nord Stream: who is considered the mastermind?
The headline refers to Nord Stream, a major gas pipeline, implying a further disruption risk to Russian natural gas flows to Europe.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Equinor ASA →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
The pipeline shock directly tightens natural-gas markets, increasing the cost of Equinor's Haber-Bosch feedstock/fuel input; the 8% share and only moderate substitutability make this the stronger hit.
64% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseNatural GasEQNR
Nord Stream disruption tightens European natural-gas supply, which can raise Equinor’s input costs on this generic natural-gas dependency.
58% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical feedstock and fuel for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production, so disrupted gas flows directly tighten fertilizer supply.
96% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskYara has a large direct exposure to natural gas as an input, and low substitutability with long replacement lead time makes a gas disruption material.
88% confidenceNatural Gas (Roasting Fuel) →Prices riseHop 3
CF Industries Holdings →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
A Nord Stream disruption tightens and re-prices natural gas markets, and CF Industries depends on natural gas as a core Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel with low substitutability and a long replacement horizon.
79% confidenceYara International ASA →Shortage riskA Nord Stream-driven natural-gas disruption hits Yara's Haber-Bosch loop directly, curbing ammonia output.
78% confidenceYara International ASA →Shortage riskHop 4
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Shortage riskUrea nitrogen fertilizer is a critical, high-dependency input for rice cultivation, so a urea shortage would materially constrain rice output and availability.
88% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage riskAmmonium nitrate is a core fertilizer ingredient, so tighter AN supply makes the broader fertilizers-and-crop-inputs category scarcer.
79% confidenceAmmonia (NH3) →Prices riseHop 5
Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
A gas-related production squeeze at Uralchem/ToAz would tighten AN availability, and the stated 8% share with a 6-month replacement lag makes the transmission material.
64% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage riskAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production)
If ToAz/Uralchem is constrained, its ammonia output would also tighten, though the smaller 3% share implies a somewhat weaker transmission.
58% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices ease
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Coffee · Rice · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Gasoline and diesel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.