Michigan Supreme Court strikes down Line 5 permit
The permit ruling threatens the Line 5 pipeline, which could disrupt movement of crude oil and refined products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Enbridge Inc., we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Enbridge Inc. →DelaysLine 5 pipeline
The court vacated the tunnel permit, further clouding the future of Enbridge’s Line 5 petroleum pipeline and delaying any capacity replacement or continued operation.
“The 6-1 decision further clouds the future of the 73-year-old pipeline owned by Canadian energy transportation company Enbridge that carries petroleum from Superior, Wisconsin, to Sarnia, Ontario.”
96% confidenceCited →Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskIf Line 5 disruption reduces Canadian crude oil imports, refiners have less feedstock and jet fuel supply tightens.
87% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Prices easeCanada accounts for 60.9% of this import stream, so a Line 5-linked cut would likely reduce Canadian export sales and pressure prices lower.
72% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysThe court ruling sends the Line 5 tunnel/review back for more regulatory work, delaying large-diameter line-pipe demand for major suppliers like EUROPIPE.
64% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysBecause the permit setback delays the Line 5 replacement effort, Tenaris faces pushed-out orders for large-diameter pipe tied to that project.
63% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Stands to benefitIf Line 5 is constrained, shippers may divert volumes to alternative pipeline capacity, and Colonial is a large, hard-to-replace supplier of that capacity.
61% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysWelspun Corp Ltd.540116.BO
The ruling delays the project that would consume large-diameter line pipe, so Welspun's Line 5-related demand is delayed as well.
61% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysVallourec S.A.VK.PA
Vallourec's line-pipe sales exposure is tied to a project now sent back for further review, which delays procurement.
60% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysUnited States Steel CorporationX
US Steel's large-diameter pipe orders tied to Line 5 are delayed while the tunnel permit is re-litigated and re-reviewed.
58% confidencePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →DelaysBy stalling the Line 5 tunnel meant to secure transport capacity, the ruling keeps crude and refined-product movement for gasoline and diesel delayed.
52% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →DelaysPipeline and terminal storage
Line 5 is a pipeline-and-terminal chokepoint, so the permit ruling delays the transport step that moves jet fuel and its feedstock.
95% confidenceGasoline and diesel →DelaysCrude Transportation — Pipeline & Marine
The Line 5 permit ruling directly threatens crude transport capacity, so the transportation step feeding gasoline and diesel is delayed/constrained.
95% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskIf Line 5 is impaired, Canadian crude oil imports feeding jet fuel become less available at refineries.
93% confidenceHop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskWith dependency_strength 1 and critical status, a crude feedstock disruption directly constrains gasoline and diesel output.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also directly dependent on crude feedstock, so a supply shock should transmit strongly into reduced availability.
96% confidenceBitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskAsphalt and paving materials are critically dependent on bitumen/asphalt binder, so a Line 5-related disruption to binder movement strongly constrains supply.
Hop 4
Home heating oil →DelaysPipeline & Marine Transport to Northeast Hubs
The Line 5 ruling directly threatens movement of crude oil and refined products, so the transport step that moves home heating oil to Northeast hubs is delayed and capacity-constrained.
93% confidencePBF Energy →Shortage riskThe Line 5 ruling can constrain crude movement, and PBF Energy depends on crude oil feedstock that is only moderately substitutable with a multi-month replacement lead time.
81% confidenceIrving Oil →Shortage riskIf the Line 5 disruption curtails crude movements, Irving Oil’s crude oil feedstock input becomes less available; the low substitutability and six-month replacement lead time make the hit material.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Asphalt and paving materials · Cleaning and sanitation supplies
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