Chinese exports fall to 2.12 trillion dollars since start of 2026
Chinese exports reportedly decline, implying weaker outward flow of manufactured goods from China.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Toys & games, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Sporting goods & fitness equipment →Prices easeCast Iron / Steel Weight Plates & Frames
If export-led output of sporting goods and fitness equipment slows, demand for this critical metal input falls, pressuring its price lower.
72% confidenceSporting goods & fitness equipment →Prices easeBrushless DC (BLDC) Electric Motors
Weaker export shipments of powered fitness equipment reduce motor orders, easing demand and lowering component prices.
69% confidenceFurniture →Prices easeEngineered Wood Panel (Particleboard/MDF/Plywood)
If Chinese export volumes weaken, furniture output typically slows and cuts demand for engineered wood panels, putting downward pressure on their price.
68% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeEVA Copolymer (Footwear Midsole Foam)
Weaker footwear exports imply less footwear output, which reduces demand for EVA midsole foam and puts downward pressure on its price.
66% confidenceFurniture →Prices easeFlexible Polyurethane Foam (Cushioning)
A slowdown in furniture exports reduces cushion-foam demand from upholstered furniture production, easing prices for this critical input.
66% confidenceSporting goods & fitness equipment →Prices easeConnected-Fitness Electronics (Touchscreen/SoC)
A drop in export volumes for connected fitness gear cuts purchases of embedded electronics, creating downward pressure on prices.
65% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeSynthetic Footwear Upper Material (PU/PET)
If China ships fewer footwear exports, demand for PU/PET upper material falls and the input is likely to clear at lower prices.
65% confidenceFurniture →Prices easeUpholstery Fabric (Woven/Performance)
Lower furniture export output means less upholstery fabric is consumed, so this input faces weaker demand and softer pricing.
64% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeFootwear Rubber/TPU Outsole Compound
Lower export-driven footwear production cuts orders for outsole compound, easing demand and likely depressing its price.
64% confidenceToys & games →Prices easeToy Plastic Resin (ABS/PP/PVC)
Weaker Chinese toy export volumes would trim molded-toy output, reducing demand for plastic resin and likely softening resin prices.
64% confidenceToys & games →Prices easeToy Packaging (Printed Box / Blister)
Export shipments falling directly reduce packaging orders for printed boxes and blisters, which should pressure packaging prices lower.
59% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeRaw Cattle Hides (Green Hides)
A slowdown in footwear exports trims leather input buying, though the pass-through is weaker because hides are only a partial and more substitutable footwear input.
58% confidenceFootwear →Prices easeNatural rubber (NR) — Hevea brasiliensis latex
Fewer exported shoes means less rubber consumption for soles, but the effect is moderate because rubber is only one of several outsole materials.
57% confidenceToys & games →Prices easeToy Electronics / Sound Module
Lower export orders mean fewer electronic and sound-module toys are assembled, easing demand and pricing for these components.
52% confidenceToys & games →Prices easeToy-Safe Paint & Coatings (Lead-Free)
Fewer finished toys moving through export channels reduce coating usage and can soften demand for toy-safe paints.
47% confidenceToys & games →Prices easePlush Textile & Polyester Fiberfill (Stuffed Toys)
Stuffed-toy production is likely to slow with weaker exports, easing demand for textile and fiberfill inputs.
43% confidenceToys & games →Prices easeLithium-Ion Battery Cells (Li-Co/NMC)
Interactive toy shipments use fewer battery cells when export orders weaken, though the effect is narrower because only some toys need them.
35% confidenceHop 2
Toy Electronics / Sound Module →Shortage riskToy Electronics / Sound Module is a meaningful input to Toys & games (dependency_strength 0.65), and China supplies 66.1% of this input, so falling Chinese exports can constrain toy production.
87% confidenceFootwear Rubber/TPU Outsole Compound →Shortage riskChina supplies 6.1% of this compound, so falling Chinese exports tighten that source and reduce available supply.
83% confidenceEVA Copolymer (Footwear Midsole Foam) →Shortage riskChina accounts for 5% of EVA copolymer supply here, so a broad drop in Chinese exports modestly tightens that supply slice.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Toys & games · Computers and laptops · Vacuums & floor care · Headphones, speakers & home audio · Footwear · Lawn & garden equipment · Power & hand tools · Vehicles and light trucks · Home appliances · Tires · Bicycles & e-bikes
Companies you may own
No named companies on this path.
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
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